RESOLVE · 4th downs
2026 RESOLVE — teams, ranked by 4th-down decision-making
Thru Week 5| # | Team | Coach | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dave Canales | 10.0 | 5.8 | 2 | 71% · 5/7 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 1.79 | 29 | |
| 2 | Mike McCarthy | 9.5 | 8.0 | 3 | 50% · 3/6 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 2.29 | 38 | |
| 3 | Joe Brady | 9.1 | 7.4 | 3 | 57% · 4/7 | 3.1 | 0.0 | 1.47 | 21 | |
| 4 | Ben Johnson | 9.0 | 8.1 | 3 | 70% · 7/10 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 1.81 | 32 | |
| 5 | Nick Sirianni | 8.9 | 7.5 | 2 | 71% · 5/7 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 1.51 | 36 | |
| 6 | Mike Vrabel | 8.8 | 8.3 | 2 | 67% · 4/6 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1.66 | 29 | |
| 7 | Brian Schottenheimer | 8.7 | 10.6 | 3 | 63% · 5/8 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 2.48 | 26 | |
| 8 | Todd Monken | 8.5 | 7.7 | 3 | 57% · 4/7 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 1.91 | 39 | |
| 9 | Kellen Moore | 8.5 | 9.2 | 5 | 38% · 3/8 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 1.85 | 31 | |
| 10 | Mike Macdonald | 8.2 | 11.1 | 5 | 50% · 5/10 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 2.64 | 36 | |
| 11 | Todd Bowles | 8.2 | 6.0 | 2 | 71% · 5/7 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 1.21 | 36 | |
| 12 | Klint Kubiak | 8.1 | 9.0 | 2 | 83% · 5/6 | 7.1 | 0.0 | 2.04 | 36 | |
| 13 | Jeff Hafley | 7.7 | 2.4 | 1 | 50% · 1/2 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.78 | 33 | |
| 14 | Matt LaFleur | 7.6 | 9.6 | 3 | 57% · 4/7 | 3.1 | 0.0 | 1.93 | 38 | |
| 15 | Dan Quinn | 7.4 | 13.8 | 6 | 33% · 3/9 | 3.9 | 0.4 | 2.83 | 39 | |
| 16 | Sean McVay | 7.3 | 8.3 | 3 | 57% · 4/7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 2.51 | 28 | |
| 17 | Kevin O'Connell | 7.0 | 13.4 | 6 | 25% · 2/8 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 2.78 | 39 | |
| 18 | Kevin Stefanski | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1 | 67% · 2/3 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 2.19 | 32 | |
| 19 | Aaron Glenn | 6.5 | 13.4 | 5 | 38% · 3/8 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 3.28 | 35 | |
| 20 | Robert Saleh | 6.3 | 12.5 | 5 | 29% · 2/7 | 3.7 | 0.5 | 2.59 | 37 | |
| 21 | Andy Reid | 6.3 | 7.9 | 2 | 50% · 2/4 | 3.1 | 0.0 | 1.97 | 24 | |
| 22 | Liam Coen | 6.2 | 15.4 | 4 | 50% · 3/6 | 4.1 | 0.0 | 4.05 | 29 | |
| 23 | Zac Taylor | 6.1 | 16.2 | 5 | 38% · 3/8 | 5.4 | 0.0 | 3.57 | 29 | |
| 24 | Jim Harbaugh | 6.0 | 17.6 | 5 | 38% · 3/8 | 7.1 | 0.8 | 3.68 | 36 | |
| 25 | Kyle Shanahan | 5.7 | 12.7 | 5 | 17% · 1/6 | 3.9 | 0.0 | 2.60 | 24 | |
| 26 | Shane Steichen | 5.6 | 22.6 | 6 | 50% · 6/12 | 8.4 | 0.2 | 4.57 | 34 | |
| 27 | John Harbaugh | 5.5 | 8.4 | 4 | 0% · 0/3 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 2.01 | 35 | |
| 28 | Dan Campbell | 5.3 | 17.4 | 3 | 67% · 6/9 | 10.7 | 1.1 | 4.05 | 37 | |
| 29 | Mike LaFleur | 4.2 | 20.0 | 5 | 29% · 2/7 | 6.3 | 0.1 | 4.15 | 38 | |
| 30 | DeMeco Ryans | 3.8 | 18.7 | 6 | 33% · 3/9 | 6.8 | 1.0 | 3.94 | 38 | |
| 31 | Jesse Minter | 3.5 | 24.2 | 6 | 33% · 3/9 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 4.83 | 31 | |
| 32 | Sean Payton | 1.0 | 34.0 | 11 | 15% · 2/13 | 6.9 | 0.0 | 6.79 | 36 |
Biggest surrenders of 2026
Bold = the option that gave the best chance · dotted = the call · cost in points of win probability · hover a situation for the play.
| Game | Situation | Go | FG | Punt | Called | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 0:37 · 4th & 1 at own 44 · tied | 68% | 30% | 57% | PuntSurrender | 10.7 | |
| Q4 0:34 · 4th & 4 at own 49 · tied | 44% | 22% | 35% | PuntSurrender | 8.4 | |
| Q4 8:26 · 4th & 2 at own 28 · down 3 | 40% | 24% | 33% | PuntSurrender | 7.1 | |
| Q4 6:54 · 4th & 1 at own 26 · up 3 | 58% | 35% | 51% | PuntSurrender | 7.0 | |
| Q4 7:10 · 4th & 2 at own 38 · down 3 | 35% | 18% | 28% | PuntSurrender | 6.9 | |
| Q4 7:40 · 4th & 5 at own 45 · down 4 | 34% | 18% | 27% | PuntSurrender | 6.8 | |
| Q3 7:33 · 4th & 1 at opp 40 · down 7 | 37% | 30% | 27% | FGSurrender | 6.8 | |
| Q4 14:04 · 4th & 1 at own 40 · up 2 | 52% | 33% | 45% | PuntSurrender | 6.3 | |
| Q4 8:14 · 4th & 1 at own 37 · tied | 64% | 46% | 58% | PuntSurrender | 6.0 | |
| Q4 7:46 · 4th & 2 at own 49 · tied | 59% | 44% | 53% | PuntSurrender | 5.5 | |
| Q4 4:53 · 4th & 2 at own 11 · down 3 | 25% | 13% | 20% | PuntSurrender | 5.2 | |
| Q4 5:10 · 4th & 1 at opp 1 · tied | 76% | 71% | — | FGSurrender | 5.2 | |
| Q3 3:30 · 4th & 1 at own 49 · down 13 | 16% | 9% | 12% | PuntSurrender | 4.7 | |
| Q4 13:04 · 4th & 1 at own 21 · up 3 | 56% | 39% | 52% | PuntSurrender | 4.5 | |
| Q1 13:18 · 4th & 1 at own 37 · tied | 61% | 48% | 56% | PuntSurrender | 4.5 |
How RESOLVE works
In 2026 the league faced 1,061 fourth downs in 79 games. Coaches punted or kicked on 127 of them when going for it was clearly the better call, and went for it on 47% of the fourth downs where the numbers said to go. The average team gave away about 2.5 points of win probability per game this way.
- Every fourth down gets three what-ifs: the team's chance of winning the game if it goes for it, kicks a field goal, or punts. The chances come from nfl4th, an open model built on years of NFL play-by-play; it also knows the pre-game point spread, so a strong team's chances look different from a weak team's.
- The coach's call is compared with the best of the three. The gap, in points of win probability, is the cost. Surrender = punting or kicking when going for it was the better call. Reckless = going for it when a kick or punt was better. Wrong kick = punting when a field goal was better, or the reverse.
- RESOLVE is a 1–10 grade, scaled within each season like our player grades. It compares what a team surrendered with what the average team gives up in the same kinds of spots — same score situation, half, distance, field position and how strongly the numbers favour going — so a team that trails a lot (and is forced to go) isn't flattered, and a team that leads a lot isn't punished for facing more temptations. The team furthest below that expectation is a 10.0, the team furthest above it is a 1.0. Red reads hot and blue reads cold.
- We grade the decision, not how it turned out: a punt that worked out still cost what it cost, and a fourth-down try that failed was still the right call if the numbers said so. Gaps under 1 point are within the model's margin for error, so they count toward the totals but aren't called “clear” surrenders.
- The first fourth-down snap of each drive is the decision we grade, so taking a delay-of-game penalty to set up a punt doesn't hide the original choice. Kneel-downs, spikes, the last 15 seconds of a game and overtime are left out.
Built with nfl4th 1.0.7 · play-by-play from nflverse (CC-BY 4.0) · updated 2026-10-13.