Bills · 2026 4th downs
Joe Brady · #3 of 32 in RESOLVE · 5 games
RESOLVE
9.1
WP surrendered
7.4
Clear surrenders
3
Went when should
57% · 4/7
Reckless WP
0.0
4th downs
21
Costliest surrenders
Bold = the option that gave the best chance · dotted = the call · cost in points of win probability.
| Game | Situation | Go | FG | Punt | Called | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:42 · 4th & 1 at opp 23 · tied | 62% | 59% | — | FGSurrender | 3.1 | |
| Q3 2:36 · 4th & 4 at own 17 · down 4 | 39% | 29% | 38% | PuntSurrender | 1.8 | |
| Q2 8:35 · 4th & 3 at own 37 · tied | 65% | 55% | 64% | PuntSurrender | 1.1 | |
| Q3 6:32 · 4th & 7 at own 44 · down 4 | 47% | 37% | 46% | PuntSurrender | 0.8 | |
| Q4 11:11 · 4th & 10 at opp 20 · down 4 | 44% | 43% | — | FGSurrender | 0.5 | |
| Q2 6:05 · 4th & 9 at opp 10 · down 10 | 41% | 41% | — | FGSurrender | 0.1 |