RESOLVE · 4th downs

2025 RESOLVE — teams, ranked by 4th-down decision-making

#	Team	Coach
1	Panthers	Dave Canales	10.0	32.7	16	63% · 24/38	3.0	0.9	1.98	119
2	Chiefs	Andy Reid	8.5	40.8	14	63% · 22/35	4.6	1.5	2.56	111
3	Giants	Brian Daboll	8.4	25.3	9	68% · 19/28	4.0	10.0	2.08	113
4	Bears	Ben Johnson	8.0	51.8	18	58% · 25/43	6.7	1.0	2.97	137
5	Cardinals	Jonathan Gannon	7.8	21.8	8	56% · 10/18	4.1	0.5	1.32	110
6	Cowboys	Brian Schottenheimer	7.6	44.5	16	56% · 20/36	4.7	1.1	2.73	99
7	Rams	Sean McVay	7.1	33.0	14	58% · 18/31	7.0	5.0	2.07	123
8	Packers	Matt LaFleur	6.8	26.1	8	69% · 18/26	5.1	2.8	1.84	100
9	Saints	Kellen Moore	6.7	35.8	15	52% · 16/31	3.6	0.5	2.29	121
10	Raiders	Pete Carroll	6.6	13.9	5	73% · 11/15	3.5	1.8	1.16	122
11	Jets	Aaron Glenn	6.6	29.9	13	50% · 12/24	3.5	1.3	1.85	132
12	Bills	Sean McDermott	6.5	37.4	15	55% · 17/31	4.0	4.9	2.26	108
13	Patriots	Mike Vrabel	6.5	34.2	14	57% · 17/30	4.1	2.6	1.76	130
14	Colts	Shane Steichen	6.5	31.4	12	56% · 15/27	3.3	1.1	1.91	93
15	Jaguars	Liam Coen	6.5	27.1	11	52% · 12/23	5.4	4.5	1.75	110
16	Eagles	Nick Sirianni	6.3	31.5	9	59% · 13/22	6.0	0.6	1.78	124
17	Lions	Dan Campbell	6.2	40.4	13	65% · 22/34	5.9	1.1	2.72	111
18	Buccaneers	Todd Bowles	6.1	37.5	14	58% · 18/31	4.4	0.4	2.55	120
19	49ers	Kyle Shanahan	5.2	33.3	13	48% · 11/23	3.5	1.2	1.81	101
20	Ravens	John Harbaugh	5.0	43.7	15	46% · 13/28	5.4	1.0	2.85	101
21	Broncos	Sean Payton	4.5	46.3	18	38% · 11/29	5.3	3.6	2.72	133
22	Commanders	Dan Quinn	4.3	34.3	10	52% · 11/21	5.5	1.9	2.42	101
23	Dolphins	Mike McDaniel	4.2	22.1	9	40% · 6/15	4.8	1.1	1.36	109
24	Falcons	Raheem Morris	4.0	40.4	17	44% · 12/27	4.0	0.6	2.77	121
25	Browns	Kevin Stefanski	4.0	43.1	11	52% · 11/21	7.4	6.2	3.19	140
26	Vikings	Kevin O'Connell	3.9	45.7	16	41% · 11/27	3.9	1.5	2.78	116
27	Titans	Brian Callahan	3.5	26.1	8	46% · 6/13	4.4	1.3	1.77	138
28	Seahawks	Mike Macdonald	3.1	33.1	13	39% · 7/18	6.6	3.5	1.83	126
29	Texans	DeMeco Ryans	2.6	57.2	22	32% · 10/31	5.8	6.3	3.58	147
30	Chargers	Jim Harbaugh	2.2	51.5	19	21% · 5/24	4.9	0.7	3.14	115
31	Bengals	Zac Taylor	1.9	47.8	16	38% · 9/24	10.8	0.4	2.84	102
32	Steelers	Mike Tomlin	1.0	70.8	20	44% · 16/36	9.3	1.0	3.99	122

Biggest surrenders of 2025

Bold = the option that gave the best chance · dotted = the call · cost in points of win probability · hover a situation for the play.

Game	Situation	Go	FG	Punt	Called	Cost
CINW1 @ CLE	Q4 2:00 · 4th & 1 at own 35 · up 1	73%	43%	62%	PuntSurrender	10.8
PITW4 vs MIN	Q4 1:08 · 4th & 1 at opp 40 · up 3	89%	74%	80%	PuntSurrender	9.3
CLEW17 vs PIT	Q4 2:24 · 4th & 1 at own 19 · up 4	70%	41%	63%	PuntSurrender	7.4
LAW5 vs SF	Q4 8:18 · 4th & 1 at own 39 · tied	65%	47%	58%	PuntSurrender	7.0
PITW7 @ CIN	Q4 5:26 · 4th & 4 at own 45 · down 6	26%	12%	19%	PuntSurrender	6.9
CHIW6 @ WAS	Q4 6:12 · 4th & 2 at own 17 · down 2	27%	13%	20%	PuntSurrender	6.7
SEAW11 @ LA	Q3 3:39 · 4th & 1 at own 40 · down 2	39%	24%	32%	PuntSurrender	6.6
CLEW18 @ CIN	Q4 2:50 · 4th & 1 at own 18 · up 5	71%	45%	64%	PuntSurrender	6.4
PHIW5 vs DEN	Q4 5:23 · 4th & 4 at own 49 · down 1	46%	30%	40%	PuntSurrender	6.0
CLEW5 vs MIN	Q4 14:17 · 4th & 1 at own 10 · up 3	54%	35%	48%	PuntSurrender	5.9
DETW6 @ KC	Q1 5:28 · 4th & 1 at opp 1 · tied	57%	51%	—	FGSurrender	5.9
HOUW9 vs DEN	Q1 0:21 · 4th & 1 at opp 1 · tied	62%	56%	—	FGSurrender	5.8
CHIW4 @ LV	Q3 3:49 · 4th & 1 at own 41 · down 5	31%	18%	25%	PuntSurrender	5.6
WASW7 @ DAL	Q1 4:48 · 4th & 1 at own 22 · down 2	47%	34%	41%	PuntSurrender	5.5
DETW17 @ MIN	Q3 11:18 · 4th & 1 at opp 48 · tied	71%	63%	65%	PuntSurrender	5.5

How RESOLVE works

In 2025 the league faced 3,755 fourth downs in 285 games. Coaches punted or kicked on 431 of them when going for it was clearly the better call, and went for it on 52% of the fourth downs where the numbers said to go. The average team gave away about 2.1 points of win probability per game this way.

Every fourth down gets three what-ifs: the team's chance of winning the game if it goes for it, kicks a field goal, or punts. The chances come from nfl4th, an open model built on years of NFL play-by-play; it also knows the pre-game point spread, so a strong team's chances look different from a weak team's.
The coach's call is compared with the best of the three. The gap, in points of win probability, is the cost. Surrender = punting or kicking when going for it was the better call. Reckless = going for it when a kick or punt was better. Wrong kick = punting when a field goal was better, or the reverse.
RESOLVE is a 1–10 grade, scaled within each season like our player grades. It compares what a team surrendered with what the average team gives up in the same kinds of spots — same score situation, half, distance, field position and how strongly the numbers favour going — so a team that trails a lot (and is forced to go) isn't flattered, and a team that leads a lot isn't punished for facing more temptations. The team furthest below that expectation is a 10.0, the team furthest above it is a 1.0. Red reads hot and blue reads cold.
We grade the decision, not how it turned out: a punt that worked out still cost what it cost, and a fourth-down try that failed was still the right call if the numbers said so. Gaps under 1 point are within the model's margin for error, so they count toward the totals but aren't called “clear” surrenders.
The first fourth-down snap of each drive is the decision we grade, so taking a delay-of-game penalty to set up a punt doesn't hide the original choice. Kneel-downs, spikes, the last 15 seconds of a game and overtime are left out.

Built with nfl4th 1.0.7 · play-by-play from nflverse (CC-BY 4.0) · updated 2026-08-23.