Patriots
29–26
NE @ BUF
Bills
Final · Sun, Oct 4, 2026 · 2026 Week 4 · Highmark Stadium
Ground Share
Neither team controlled the field
NE 52%48% BUF
51.7%GROUND46.8%
Win Probability
Preparing chart…
Expected Points
Preparing chart…
QB Matchup
| QB | Plays | EPA/play | Success% | Sack% | Total EPA | aDoT | CMP% | xCMP% | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Maye | 42 | +0.35 | 54.8% | 2.4% | +14.9 | 10.0 | 61.1% | 60.0% | +1.1 |
| J.Allen | 35 | +0.10 | 34.3% | 2.9% | +3.6 | 8.7 | 76.7% | 66.4% | +10.3 |
Team Stats
| Metric |  NE |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| EPA / Play | +0.18 | +0.12 |
| EPA / Dropback | +0.35 | +0.10 |
| EPA / Rush | -0.07 | +0.15 |
| Success Rate | 50.7% | 40.7% |
| Pass | 54.8% | 34.3% |
| Rush | 44.8% | 52.6% |
| Explosive Play Rate | 8.5% | 14.8% |
| Pass | 9.5% | 14.3% |
| Rush | 6.9% | 15.8% |
| Yards / Play | 5.73 | 6.30 |
| Early-Down EPA / Play | +0.10 | +0.02 |
| 3rd/4th-Down Conversion | 53.8% | 53.8% |
| Avg 3rd-Down Distance | 6.4 | 5.4 |
| Line Yards / Carry | 2.43 | 3.40 |
| Opportunity Rate (4+) | 34.5% | 47.4% |
| Stuff Rate | 24.1% | 21.1% |
| Havoc Rate Allowed | 14.1% | 11.1% |
| Avg Starting Field Position | 28.4 | 27.4 |
| Plays | 71 | 54 |
| Total Yards | 407 | 340 |
| Total EPA | +12.7 | +6.4 |
| Giveaways | 2 | 2 |
Special Teams
Special teams were a wash
NE 44%56% BUF
3.6 pts wonSPECIAL TEAMS4.6 pts won
Biggest swing · T.Doman punts 43 yards to NE 20. M.Jones to NE 37 for 17 yards — NE +1.2
Kickoffs · BUF +0.4Punts · evenKicks · BUF +0.5
Player Stats
NE
Dropbacks
| Player | DB | C/Att | Yds | Yds/DB | EPA | EPA/Play | CPOE | SR | WPA | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake MayeQB | 42 | 22/37 | 269 | 7.5 | +14.9 | +0.35 | +1.1 | 55% | +0.45 | 3 | 1 |
Rush attempts
| Player | Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake MayeQB | 6 | 56 | 9.3 | +4.8 | +0.80 | 67% | +0.12 | 0 |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB | 13 | 47 | 3.6 | -0.2 | -0.01 | 54% | +0.10 | 1 |
| TreVeyon HendersonRB | 14 | 42 | 3.0 | -1.9 | -0.14 | 36% | +0.05 | 0 |
Pass targets
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romeo DoubsWR | 9 | 6 | 58 | 6.4 | +5.8 | +0.64 | 67% | +0.09 | 2 |
| Efton Chism IIIWR | 4 | 2 | 42 | 10.5 | +4.3 | +1.07 | 50% | +0.27 | 1 |
| Hunter HenryTE | 5 | 5 | 62 | 12.4 | +4.2 | +0.85 | 100% | +0.12 | 0 |
| Mack HollinsWR | 4 | 3 | 53 | 13.3 | +4.0 | +1.01 | 75% | +0.12 | 0 |
| Eli RaridonTE | 2 | 1 | 12 | 6.0 | +0.7 | +0.33 | 50% | +0.00 | 0 |
| DeMario DouglasWR | 3 | 2 | 15 | 5.0 | +0.1 | +0.04 | 33% | +0.01 | 0 |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB | 5 | 3 | 27 | 5.4 | -1.1 | -0.21 | 40% | -0.03 | 0 |
| TreVeyon HendersonRB | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | -1.1 | -0.54 | 0% | -0.04 | 0 |
| Kyle WilliamsWR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | -1.3 | -0.67 | 0% | -0.05 | 0 |
Kicking
| Player | FG | Long | XP | KO | TB | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy BorregalesK | — | — | 3/3 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
Punting
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Net | Long | In 20 | TB | Blk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch WishnowskyP | 4 | 208 | 52.0 | 38.0 | 58 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Kick returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle WilliamsWR | 3 | 81 | 27.0 | 34 | 0 |
| Corey KinerRB | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 22 | 0 |
Punt returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus JonesCB | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 17 | 0 |
BUF
Dropbacks
| Player | DB | C/Att | Yds | Yds/DB | EPA | EPA/Play | CPOE | SR | WPA | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB | 35 | 23/33 | 253 | 7.2 | +3.6 | +0.10 | +10.3 | 34% | +0.02 | 1 | 1 |
Rush attempts
| Player | Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James CookRB | 12 | 75 | 6.3 | +3.7 | +0.31 | 67% | +0.12 | 1 |
| Josh AllenQB | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | -0.1 | -0.02 | 40% | +0.00 | 1 |
| Ray DavisRB | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | -0.2 | -0.16 | 0% | +0.00 | 0 |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | -0.2 | -0.18 | 0% | -0.01 | 0 |
| DJ MooreWR | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | -0.6 | -0.56 | 0% | -0.03 | 0 |
Pass targets
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keon ColemanWR | 7 | 6 | 116 | 16.6 | +8.9 | +1.28 | 71% | +0.49 | 1 |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 2 | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | +1.9 | +0.93 | 50% | +0.02 | 0 |
| DJ MooreWR | 2 | 1 | 11 | 5.5 | +1.4 | +0.72 | 50% | +0.03 | 0 |
| Dawson KnoxTE | 2 | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | +0.6 | +0.29 | 50% | +0.02 | 0 |
| Khalil ShakirWR | 8 | 7 | 82 | 10.3 | +0.5 | +0.06 | 38% | -0.03 | 0 |
| Ray DavisRB | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | -0.3 | -0.25 | 0% | +0.00 | 0 |
| James CookRB | 2 | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | -0.5 | -0.24 | 0% | -0.01 | 0 |
| Dalton KincaidTE | 2 | 1 | 7 | 3.5 | -1.4 | -0.68 | 50% | -0.01 | 0 |
| Josh PalmerWR | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0.8 | -4.4 | -1.10 | 0% | -0.37 | 0 |
Kicking
| Player | FG | Long | XP | KO | TB | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler BassK | 2/2(27, 38) | 38 | 2/2 | 6 | 1 | 8 |
Punting
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Net | Long | In 20 | TB | Blk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Doman Jr.P | 4 | 194 | 48.5 | 44.0 | 59 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg DortchWR | 4 | 91 | 22.8 | 26 | 0 |
| Ray DavisRB | 1 | 29 | 29.0 | 29 | 0 |
Punt returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg DortchWR | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 16 | 0 |