Packers
17–14
GB @ TB
Buccaneers
Final · Sun, Oct 4, 2026 · 2026 Week 4 · Raymond James Stadium
Ground Share
Packers had the edge on the field
Teams with this edge win 71% of the time
GB 55%45% TB
48.7%GROUND39.6%
Win Probability
Preparing chart…
Expected Points
Preparing chart…
QB Matchup
| QB | Plays | EPA/play | Success% | Sack% | Total EPA | aDoT | CMP% | xCMP% | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Love | 30 | +0.23 | 50.0% | 0.0% | +6.9 | 7.2 | 73.3% | 68.0% | +5.3 |
| J.Daniels | 36 | -0.08 | 44.4% | 8.3% | -2.8 | 3.9 | 73.1% | 71.9% | +1.2 |
Team Stats
| Metric |  GB |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| EPA / Play | +0.02 | -0.04 |
| EPA / Dropback | +0.23 | -0.08 |
| EPA / Rush | -0.27 | +0.02 |
| Success Rate | 46.2% | 44.3% |
| Pass | 50.0% | 44.4% |
| Rush | 40.9% | 44.0% |
| Explosive Play Rate | 5.8% | 4.9% |
| Pass | 3.3% | 5.6% |
| Rush | 9.1% | 4.0% |
| Yards / Play | 5.67 | 4.51 |
| Early-Down EPA / Play | -0.07 | -0.12 |
| 3rd/4th-Down Conversion | 41.7% | 46.7% |
| Avg 3rd-Down Distance | 5.9 | 6.3 |
| Line Yards / Carry | 3.14 | 3.26 |
| Opportunity Rate (4+) | 36.4% | 48.0% |
| Stuff Rate | 27.3% | 16.0% |
| Havoc Rate Allowed | 13.5% | 8.2% |
| Avg Starting Field Position | 32.7 | 22.9 |
| Plays | 52 | 61 |
| Total Yards | 295 | 275 |
| Total EPA | +0.9 | -2.3 |
| Giveaways | 2 | 2 |
Special Teams
Packers won the kicking game
Teams with this edge win 63% of the time
GB 69%31% TB
5.1 pts wonSPECIAL TEAMS2.3 pts won
Biggest swing · T.Smack 58 yard field goal is GOOD — GB +1.8
Kickoffs · TB +1.1Punts · GB +2.1Kicks · GB +1.8
Player Stats
GB
Dropbacks
| Player | DB | C/Att | Yds | Yds/DB | EPA | EPA/Play | CPOE | SR | WPA | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan LoveQB | 30 | 22/30 | 197 | 6.6 | +6.9 | +0.23 | +5.3 | 50% | +0.18 | 2 | 1 |
Rush attempts
| Player | Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tucker KraftTE | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | +1.9 | +1.91 | 100% | +0.06 | 0 |
| Chris BrooksRB | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | +0.9 | +0.22 | 50% | +0.03 | 0 |
| Matthew GoldenWR | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | +0.2 | +0.23 | 100% | -0.01 | 0 |
| Jordan LoveQB | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | -0.1 | -0.09 | 0% | -0.01 | 0 |
| MarShawn LloydRB | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | -3.0 | -0.43 | 29% | -0.08 | 0 |
| Kaleb JohnsonRB | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | -5.9 | -0.74 | 38% | -0.18 | 0 |
Pass targets
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian WatsonWR | 3 | 3 | 47 | 15.7 | +4.9 | +1.62 | 100% | +0.13 | 0 |
| Tucker KraftTE | 7 | 6 | 42 | 6.0 | +4.0 | +0.57 | 57% | +0.17 | 1 |
| Jonnu SmithTE | 1 | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | +1.9 | +1.87 | 100% | +0.06 | 0 |
| Mark RedmanTE | 2 | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | +1.7 | +0.85 | 50% | +0.06 | 0 |
| MarShawn LloydRB | 5 | 5 | 36 | 7.2 | +0.3 | +0.05 | 60% | +0.04 | 0 |
| Chris BrooksRB | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | -0.2 | -0.24 | 0% | -0.01 | 0 |
| J. Michael SturdivantWR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | -0.8 | -0.80 | 0% | -0.02 | 0 |
| Skyy MooreWR | 2 | 1 | -2 | -1.0 | -1.2 | -0.60 | 0% | -0.05 | 0 |
| Matthew GoldenWR | 7 | 3 | 21 | 3.0 | -1.6 | -0.24 | 43% | -0.16 | 1 |
| Bo MeltonWR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | -1.9 | -1.91 | 0% | -0.03 | 0 |
Kicking
| Player | FG | Long | XP | KO | TB | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey SmackK | 1/1(58) | 58 | 2/2 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
Punting
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Net | Long | In 20 | TB | Blk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel WhelanP | 4 | 180 | 45.0 | 41.8 | 61 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skyy MooreWR | 2 | 52 | 26.0 | 28 | 0 |
Punt returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skyy MooreWR | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 11 | 0 |
TB
Dropbacks
| Player | DB | C/Att | Yds | Yds/DB | EPA | EPA/Play | CPOE | SR | WPA | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalon DanielsQB | 36 | 19/27 | 148 | 5.0 | -2.8 | -0.08 | +1.2 | 44% | -0.34 | 1 | 2 |
Rush attempts
| Player | Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean TuckerRB | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | +1.8 | +0.61 | 67% | +0.06 | 1 |
| Jalon DanielsQB | 8 | 55 | 6.9 | +1.4 | +0.17 | 50% | -0.03 | 0 |
| Tez JohnsonWR | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | +1.3 | +1.27 | 100% | +0.07 | 0 |
| Bucky IrvingRB | 16 | 61 | 3.8 | -0.9 | -0.06 | 44% | -0.09 | 0 |
| Kenny GainwellRB | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | -1.5 | -0.51 | 0% | -0.05 | 0 |
Pass targets
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny GainwellRB | 2 | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | +4.0 | +2.03 | 100% | +0.15 | 1 |
| Ted Hurst IIIWR | 3 | 2 | 25 | 8.3 | +3.2 | +1.06 | 67% | -0.06 | 0 |
| Cade OttonTE | 6 | 4 | 37 | 6.2 | +1.1 | +0.18 | 67% | +0.07 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr.WR | 7 | 6 | 31 | 4.4 | +0.7 | +0.10 | 43% | -0.05 | 0 |
| Tez JohnsonWR | 2 | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | +0.2 | +0.10 | 50% | +0.02 | 0 |
| Kameron JohnsonWR | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | -4.1 | -2.07 | 0% | -0.15 | 0 |
| Emeka EgbukaWR | 4 | 2 | 13 | 3.3 | -4.3 | -1.07 | 25% | -0.07 | 0 |
Kicking
| Player | FG | Long | XP | KO | TB | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase McLaughlinK | — | — | 2/2 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
Punting
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Net | Long | In 20 | TB | Blk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley DixonP | 4 | 160 | 40.0 | 35.3 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Punt returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tez JohnsonWR | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 13 | 0 |