Falcons
45–24
ATL @ NO
Saints
Final · Mon, Oct 5, 2026 · 2026 Week 4 · Caesars Superdome
Ground Share
Falcons controlled more of the field
Teams with this edge win 86% of the time
ATL 60%40% NO
68.0%GROUND44.5%
Win Probability
Preparing chart…
Expected Points
Preparing chart…
QB Matchup
| QB | Plays | EPA/play | Success% | Sack% | Total EPA | aDoT | CMP% | xCMP% | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Penix | 21 | +0.51 | 57.1% | 4.8% | +10.7 | 6.5 | 75.0% | 73.3% | +1.8 |
| T.Shough | 51 | +0.00 | 39.2% | 3.9% | +0.2 | 10.0 | 63.8% | 64.0% | -0.2 |
Team Stats
| Metric |  ATL |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| EPA / Play | +0.42 | -0.07 |
| EPA / Dropback | +0.51 | +0.00 |
| EPA / Rush | +0.37 | -0.29 |
| Success Rate | 59.3% | 36.2% |
| Pass | 57.1% | 39.2% |
| Rush | 60.6% | 27.8% |
| Explosive Play Rate | 16.7% | 4.3% |
| Pass | 23.8% | 5.9% |
| Rush | 12.1% | 0.0% |
| Yards / Play | 7.81 | 4.64 |
| Early-Down EPA / Play | +0.49 | -0.19 |
| 3rd/4th-Down Conversion | 50.0% | 47.4% |
| Avg 3rd-Down Distance | 5.3 | 6.9 |
| Line Yards / Carry | 4.73 | 2.30 |
| Opportunity Rate (4+) | 54.5% | 38.9% |
| Stuff Rate | 6.1% | 16.7% |
| Havoc Rate Allowed | 5.6% | 17.4% |
| Avg Starting Field Position | 37.9 | 28.1 |
| Plays | 54 | 69 |
| Total Yards | 422 | 320 |
| Total EPA | +22.7 | -5.0 |
| Giveaways | 0 | 1 |
Special Teams
Falcons had the edge in the kicking game
Teams with this edge win 56% of the time
ATL 62%38% NO
6.5 pts wonSPECIAL TEAMS3.9 pts won
Biggest swing · D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left — ATL +3.8
Kickoffs · NO +1.3Punts · NO +0.1Kicks · ATL +4.0
Player Stats
ATL
Dropbacks
| Player | DB | C/Att | Yds | Yds/DB | EPA | EPA/Play | CPOE | SR | WPA | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix Jr.QB | 21 | 15/20 | 223 | 10.2 | +10.7 | +0.51 | +1.8 | 57% | +0.15 | 1 | 0 |
Rush attempts
| Player | Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan RobinsonRB | 19 | 145 | 7.6 | +6.4 | +0.34 | 58% | +0.18 | 2 |
| Brian RobinsonRB | 14 | 62 | 4.4 | +5.6 | +0.40 | 64% | +0.08 | 3 |
Pass targets
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake LondonWR | 6 | 5 | 96 | 16.0 | +6.8 | +1.14 | 67% | +0.12 | 0 |
| Kyle PittsTE | 3 | 3 | 47 | 15.7 | +3.7 | +1.23 | 100% | +0.04 | 0 |
| Jahan DotsonWR | 3 | 2 | 54 | 18.0 | +3.6 | +1.19 | 67% | +0.03 | 1 |
| Austin HooperTE | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | +0.8 | +0.75 | 100% | +0.02 | 0 |
| Zachariah BranchWR | 2 | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | +0.3 | +0.13 | 50% | +0.00 | 0 |
| Brian RobinsonRB | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | +0.1 | +0.14 | 100% | +0.01 | 0 |
| Bijan RobinsonRB | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | -0.6 | -0.32 | 0% | -0.01 | 0 |
| Charlie WoernerTE | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | -0.7 | -0.73 | 0% | -0.01 | 0 |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | -0.9 | -0.94 | 0% | -0.01 | 0 |
Kicking
| Player | FG | Long | XP | KO | TB | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick FolkK | 1/1(29) | 29 | 6/6 | 8 | 0 | 9 |
Punting
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Net | Long | In 20 | TB | Blk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake BaileyP | 2 | 72 | 36.0 | 35.0 | 44 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zachariah BranchWR | 3 | 65 | 21.7 | 25 | 0 |
Punt returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zachariah BranchWR | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 25 | 0 |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
NO
Dropbacks
| Player | DB | C/Att | Yds | Yds/DB | EPA | EPA/Play | CPOE | SR | WPA | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler ShoughQB | 51 | 30/48 | 286 | 5.3 | +0.2 | +0.00 | -0.2 | 39% | -0.02 | 1 | 0 |
Rush attempts
| Player | Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin KamaraRB | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | +3.1 | +0.44 | 43% | +0.05 | 2 |
| CJ DonaldsonRB | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | +0.7 | +0.22 | 33% | +0.00 | 0 |
| Tyler ShoughQB | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | +0.0 | +0.02 | 50% | +0.01 | 0 |
| Barion BrownWR | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | -1.3 | -1.34 | 0% | -0.01 | 0 |
| Kendre MillerRB | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | -8.2 | -1.36 | 0% | -0.16 | 0 |
Pass targets
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris OlaveWR | 12 | 8 | 116 | 9.7 | +7.2 | +0.60 | 58% | +0.04 | 0 |
| Devaughn VeleWR | 9 | 6 | 54 | 6.0 | +4.0 | +0.44 | 56% | -0.04 | 1 |
| Juwan JohnsonTE | 8 | 6 | 59 | 7.4 | +2.2 | +0.27 | 38% | +0.04 | 0 |
| Alvin KamaraRB | 7 | 5 | 35 | 5.0 | -0.3 | -0.04 | 43% | +0.01 | 0 |
| CJ DonaldsonRB | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | -0.4 | -0.19 | 50% | +0.00 | 0 |
| Treyton WelchTE | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | -0.6 | -0.58 | 0% | +0.00 | 0 |
| Kendre MillerRB | 3 | 2 | 10 | 3.3 | -1.3 | -0.43 | 0% | +0.03 | 0 |
| Bryce LanceWR | 5 | 1 | 7 | 1.4 | -4.8 | -0.95 | 20% | -0.05 | 0 |
Kicking
| Player | FG | Long | XP | KO | TB | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel CarlsonK | 1/2(27 · missed 52) | 27 | 3/3 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
Punting
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Net | Long | In 20 | TB | Blk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan WrightP | 3 | 149 | 49.7 | 41.3 | 57 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barion BrownWR | 5 | 130 | 26.0 | 30 | 0 |
| Jayden PriceCB | 3 | 79 | 26.3 | 29 | 0 |
Punt returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barion BrownWR | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |