Bills
36–31
BUF @ HOU
Texans
Final · Sun, Sep 13, 2026 · 2026 Week 1 · Reliant Stadium
Ground Share
Bills had the edge on the field
Teams with this edge win 71% of the time
BUF 53%47% HOU
52.9%GROUND47.4%
Win Probability
Preparing chart…
Expected Points
Preparing chart…
QB Matchup
| QB | Plays | EPA/play | Success% | Sack% | Total EPA | aDoT | CMP% | xCMP% | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen | 32 | +0.56 | 46.9% | 6.3% | +17.9 | 12.8 | 71.4% | 63.3% | +8.1 |
| C.Stroud | 42 | +0.10 | 50.0% | 7.1% | +4.1 | 8.0 | 70.3% | 67.1% | +3.2 |
Team Stats
| Metric |  BUF |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| EPA / Play | +0.25 | +0.07 |
| EPA / Dropback | +0.56 | +0.10 |
| EPA / Rush | -0.26 | +0.03 |
| Success Rate | 41.2% | 46.6% |
| Pass | 46.9% | 50.0% |
| Rush | 31.6% | 41.9% |
| Explosive Play Rate | 15.7% | 9.6% |
| Pass | 18.8% | 9.5% |
| Rush | 10.5% | 9.7% |
| Yards / Play | 8.04 | 5.22 |
| Early-Down EPA / Play | +0.24 | +0.09 |
| 3rd/4th-Down Conversion | 30.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg 3rd-Down Distance | 9.2 | 7.4 |
| Line Yards / Carry | 2.84 | 2.78 |
| Opportunity Rate (4+) | 36.8% | 41.9% |
| Stuff Rate | 15.8% | 25.8% |
| Havoc Rate Allowed | 15.7% | 9.6% |
| Avg Starting Field Position | 29.6 | 26.9 |
| Plays | 51 | 73 |
| Total Yards | 410 | 381 |
| Total EPA | +12.9 | +5.0 |
| Giveaways | 0 | 2 |
Special Teams
Special teams were a wash
BUF 48%52% HOU
6.4 pts wonSPECIAL TEAMS6.8 pts won
Biggest swing · K.Fairbairn 58 yard field goal is GOOD — HOU +1.8
Kickoffs · BUF +1.5Punts · HOU +1.3Kicks · HOU +0.6
Player Stats
BUF
Dropbacks
| Player | DB | C/Att | Yds | Yds/DB | EPA | EPA/Play | CPOE | SR | WPA | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB | 32 | 20/29 | 334 | 10.8 | +17.9 | +0.56 | +8.1 | 47% | +0.77 | 2 | 0 |
Rush attempts
| Player | Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore Jr.RB | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | -0.1 | -0.06 | 0% | +0.01 | 0 |
| James CookRB | 13 | 57 | 4.4 | -0.1 | -0.01 | 39% | +0.04 | 0 |
| Ray DavisRB | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | -0.1 | -0.15 | 0% | +0.02 | 0 |
| Josh AllenQB | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | -2.3 | -0.46 | 40% | -0.07 | 2 |
Pass targets
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton KincaidTE | 6 | 5 | 130 | 21.7 | +7.6 | +1.27 | 67% | +0.41 | 0 |
| DJ MooreWR | 8 | 5 | 100 | 12.5 | +6.4 | +0.80 | 50% | +0.16 | 1 |
| Josh PalmerWR | 2 | 1 | 34 | 17.0 | +4.1 | +2.06 | 50% | +0.25 | 1 |
| Keon ColemanWR | 1 | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | +1.0 | +1.00 | 100% | +0.02 | 0 |
| Khalil ShakirWR | 6 | 4 | 40 | 6.7 | +0.6 | +0.09 | 33% | +0.01 | 0 |
| Dawson KnoxTE | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.3 | +0.29 | 100% | +0.00 | 0 |
| James CookRB | 4 | 3 | 12 | 3.0 | -0.4 | -0.10 | 25% | -0.02 | 0 |
Kicking
| Player | FG | Long | XP | KO | TB | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler BassK | 3/3(46, 34, 33) | 46 | 3/3 | 8 | 0 | 12 |
Punting
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Net | Long | In 20 | TB | Blk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Doman Jr.P | 2 | 109 | 54.5 | 54.5 | 63 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg DortchWR | 3 | 82 | 27.3 | 37 | 0 |
| Ray DavisRB | 2 | 51 | 25.5 | 29 | 0 |
Punt returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg DortchWR | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 10 | 0 |
HOU
Dropbacks
| Player | DB | C/Att | Yds | Yds/DB | EPA | EPA/Play | CPOE | SR | WPA | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. StroudQB | 42 | 26/38 | 274 | 6.5 | +4.1 | +0.10 | +3.2 | 50% | +0.05 | 2 | 0 |
Rush attempts
| Player | Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woody MarksRB | 9 | 42 | 4.7 | +1.5 | +0.16 | 44% | +0.08 | 0 |
| C.J. StroudQB | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | +1.5 | +0.73 | 50% | +0.01 | 0 |
| Nico CollinsWR | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.9 | +0.91 | 100% | +0.02 | 0 |
| David MontgomeryRB | 20 | 60 | 3.0 | -0.3 | -0.01 | 40% | +0.01 | 2 |
Pass targets
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico CollinsWR | 10 | 7 | 75 | 7.5 | +4.9 | +0.49 | 60% | +0.26 | 1 |
| Jaylin NoelWR | 2 | 2 | 53 | 26.5 | +4.0 | +1.99 | 100% | +0.22 | 0 |
| David MontgomeryRB | 3 | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | +2.6 | +0.88 | 67% | +0.13 | 1 |
| Marlin KleinTE | 1 | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | +1.1 | +1.05 | 100% | +0.04 | 0 |
| Foster MoreauTE | 2 | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | +0.9 | +0.47 | 100% | +0.02 | 0 |
| Xavier HutchinsonWR | 6 | 3 | 32 | 5.3 | +0.9 | +0.15 | 33% | +0.02 | 0 |
| Jared WayneWR | 1 | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | +0.7 | +0.73 | 100% | +0.04 | 0 |
| Kayshon BoutteWR | 2 | 1 | 21 | 10.5 | +0.4 | +0.21 | 50% | +0.02 | 0 |
| Cade StoverTE | 1 | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | -0.9 | -0.94 | 0% | -0.03 | 0 |
| Woody MarksRB | 1 | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | -1.4 | -1.37 | 0% | -0.04 | 0 |
| Dalton SchultzTE | 8 | 4 | 35 | 4.4 | -2.5 | -0.32 | 38% | -0.06 | 0 |
Kicking
| Player | FG | Long | XP | KO | TB | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ka'imi FairbairnK | 1/1(58) | 58 | 4/4 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
Punting
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Net | Long | In 20 | TB | Blk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai KroegerP | 4 | 208 | 52.0 | 49.5 | 59 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woody MarksRB | 3 | 78 | 26.0 | 31 | 0 |
| Jaylin NoelWR | 3 | 70 | 23.3 | 26 | 0 |
| Tremon SmithCB | 2 | 54 | 27.0 | 28 | 0 |
Punt returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylin NoelWR | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |