Patriots
10–7
NE @ DEN
Broncos
Final · Sun, Jan 25, 2026 · 2025 Conference Championship · Empower Field at Mile High
Ground Share
Neither team controlled the field
NE 49%51% DEN
22.4%GROUND23.6%
Win Probability
Preparing chart…
Expected Points
Preparing chart…
QB Matchup
| QB | Plays | EPA/play | Success% | Sack% | Total EPA | aDoT | CMP% | xCMP% | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Maye | 29 | -0.18 | 34.5% | 17.2% | -5.3 | 11.9 | 50.0% | 63.0% | -13.0 |
| J.Stidham | 37 | -0.43 | 21.6% | 8.1% | -16.0 | 6.5 | 63.0% | 68.8% | -5.8 |
Team Stats
| Metric | NE | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| EPA / Play | -0.14 | -0.31 |
| EPA / Dropback | -0.18 | -0.43 |
| EPA / Rush | -0.10 | -0.10 |
| Success Rate | 31.1% | 29.3% |
| Explosive Play Rate | 18.0% | 15.5% |
| Yards / Play | 3.43 | 3.12 |
| Early-Down EPA / Play | -0.19 | -0.22 |
| 3rd/4th-Down Conversion | 38.9% | 26.7% |
| Avg 3rd-Down Distance | 7.7 | 7.6 |
| Line Yards / Carry | 2.30 | 2.52 |
| Opportunity Rate (4+) | 37.5% | 33.3% |
| Stuff Rate | 18.8% | 19.1% |
| Havoc Rate Allowed | 11.5% | 8.6% |
| Avg Starting Field Position | 28.4 | 36.0 |
| Plays | 61 | 58 |
| Total Yards | 209 | 181 |
| Total EPA | -8.4 | -18.1 |
| Giveaways | 0 | 2 |
Special Teams
Special teams were a wash
NE 47%53% DEN
9.0 pts wonSPECIAL TEAMS10.2 pts won
Biggest swing · W.Lutz 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right — NE +4.0
Kickoffs · NE +0.1Punts · DEN +4.5Kicks · NE +3.2
Player Stats
NE
Dropbacks
| Player | DB | C/Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | CPOE | SR | WPA | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake MayeQB | 29 | 10/21 | 122 | 4.2 | -5.3 | -0.18 | -13.0 | 35% | -0.18 | 0 | 0 |
Rush attempts
| Player | Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake MayeQB | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | +3.5 | +0.88 | 75% | +0.17 | 1 |
| TreVeyon HendersonRB | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | -1.6 | -0.53 | 0% | -0.06 | 0 |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB | 25 | 71 | 2.8 | -5.0 | -0.20 | 24% | -0.18 | 0 |
Pass targets
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mack HollinsWR | 2 | 2 | 51 | 25.5 | +5.3 | +2.63 | 100% | +0.15 | 0 |
| Hunter HenryTE | 3 | 2 | 12 | 4.0 | -0.2 | -0.08 | 33% | -0.02 | 0 |
| DeMario DouglasWR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | -0.7 | -0.65 | 0% | -0.02 | 0 |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | -1.7 | -0.84 | 0% | -0.05 | 0 |
| Kayshon BoutteWR | 6 | 1 | 6 | 1.0 | -2.0 | -0.34 | 17% | -0.11 | 0 |
| Stefon DiggsWR | 6 | 5 | 17 | 2.8 | -2.9 | -0.48 | 50% | -0.04 | 0 |
Kicking
| Player | FG | Long | XP | KO | TB | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy BorregalesK | 1/3(23 · missed 63, 46) | 23 | 1/1 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
Punting
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Net | Long | In 20 | TB | Blk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce BaringerP | 8 | 303 | 37.9 | 36.9 | 45 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Ernest JohnsonRB | 2 | 59 | 29.5 | 30 | 0 |
Punt returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus JonesCB | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
DEN
Dropbacks
| Player | DB | C/Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | CPOE | SR | WPA | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett StidhamQB | 37 | 17/31 | 117 | 3.2 | -16.0 | -0.43 | -5.8 | 22% | -0.72 | 1 | 1 |
Rush attempts
| Player | Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett StidhamQB | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | +0.6 | +0.56 | 100% | +0.01 | 0 |
| Tyler BadieRB | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.6 | +0.55 | 100% | +0.04 | 0 |
| Adam PrenticeFB | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | +0.1 | +0.09 | 100% | +0.00 | 0 |
| Pat BryantWR | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | -0.4 | -0.37 | 0% | -0.01 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlinRB | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | -0.9 | -0.23 | 25% | -0.01 | 0 |
| RJ HarveyRB | 13 | 37 | 2.9 | -2.0 | -0.16 | 39% | -0.12 | 0 |
Pass targets
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Mims Jr.WR | 6 | 4 | 62 | 10.3 | +1.2 | +0.21 | 33% | -0.11 | 0 |
| Courtland SuttonWR | 5 | 3 | 17 | 3.4 | -0.1 | -0.02 | 40% | +0.04 | 1 |
| Evan EngramTE | 3 | 2 | 19 | 6.3 | -0.1 | -0.04 | 33% | -0.04 | 0 |
| Pat BryantWR | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | -0.2 | -0.22 | 0% | +0.00 | 0 |
| Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1.7 | -0.5 | -0.16 | 33% | -0.05 | 0 |
| Elijah MooreWR | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | -1.1 | -1.08 | 0% | -0.05 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlinRB | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | -1.3 | -0.64 | 0% | -0.04 | 0 |
| RJ HarveyRB | 6 | 4 | 22 | 3.7 | -4.0 | -0.66 | 33% | -0.11 | 0 |
Kicking
| Player | FG | Long | XP | KO | TB | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wil LutzK | 0/2(missed 54, 45) | — | 1/1 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
Punting
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Net | Long | In 20 | TB | Blk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy CrawshawP | 6 | 309 | 51.5 | 44.5 | 60 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Kick returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler BadieRB | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 20 | 0 |
Punt returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Mims Jr.WR | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 8 | 0 |