Bills
30–33
BUF @ DEN
Broncos
Final/OT · Sat, Jan 17, 2026 · 2025 Divisional Round · Empower Field at Mile High
Ground Share
Bills had the edge on the field
Teams with this edge win 71% of the time
BUF 54%46% DEN
56.3%GROUND48.4%
Win Probability
Preparing chart…
QB Matchup
| QB | Plays | EPA/play | Total EPA | aDoT | CMP% | xCMP% | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen | 42 | +0.12 | +5.0 | 9.2 | 64.1% | 61.8% | +2.3 |
| B.Nix | 46 | +0.08 | +3.5 | 6.6 | 56.5% | 66.6% | -4.7 |
Team Stats
| Metric | BUF | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| EPA / Play | +0.08 | +0.09 |
| EPA / Dropback | +0.10 | +0.10 |
| EPA / Rush | +0.05 | -0.16 |
| Success Rate | 50.0% | 44.3% |
| Explosive Play Rate | 30.8% | 22.9% |
| Yards / Play | 5.76 | 5.04 |
| Early-Down EPA / Play | -0.09 | +0.14 |
| 3rd/4th-Down Conversion | 68.8% | 52.9% |
| Avg 3rd-Down Distance | 5.6 | 5.8 |
| Line Yards / Carry | 3.43 | 2.56 |
| Opportunity Rate (4+) | 40.6% | 41.2% |
| Stuff Rate | 12.5% | 29.4% |
| Havoc Rate Allowed | 10.3% | 14.3% |
| Avg Starting Field Position | 27.4 | 33.6 |
| Plays | 78 | 70 |
| Total Yards | 449 | 353 |
| Total EPA | +6.5 | +6.2 |
| Giveaways | 5 | 1 |
Player Stats
BUF
Dropbacks
| Player | DB | C/Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | CPOE | SR | WPA | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB | 46 | 25/39 | 305 | 6.6 | +4.8 | +0.10 | +2.3 | 48% | +0.49 | 3 | 2 |
Rush attempts
| Player | Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | +6.3 | +0.79 | 88% | +0.29 | 0 |
| James CookRB | 24 | 117 | 4.9 | -4.6 | -0.19 | 42% | -0.29 | 0 |
Pass targets
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton KincaidTE | 6 | 6 | 83 | 13.8 | +9.1 | +1.51 | 100% | +0.44 | 1 |
| Khalil ShakirWR | 9 | 7 | 99 | 11.0 | +4.6 | +0.52 | 56% | +0.19 | 0 |
| Ray DavisRB | 2 | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | +1.3 | +0.65 | 50% | +0.14 | 0 |
| Dawson KnoxTE | 5 | 3 | 32 | 6.4 | +1.1 | +0.22 | 60% | -0.02 | 0 |
| Keon ColemanWR | 3 | 1 | 10 | 3.3 | +0.9 | +0.30 | 33% | -0.01 | 1 |
| Mecole HardmanWR | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2.0 | +0.8 | +0.41 | 50% | +0.01 | 1 |
| James CookRB | 3 | 2 | 24 | 8.0 | +0.4 | +0.14 | 33% | +0.00 | 0 |
| Brandin CooksWR | 6 | 2 | 20 | 3.3 | +0.1 | +0.02 | 33% | +0.10 | 0 |
| Curtis SamuelWR | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0.7 | -6.0 | -1.99 | 0% | -0.12 | 0 |
DEN
Dropbacks
| Player | DB | C/Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | CPOE | SR | WPA | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo NixQB | 49 | 26/46 | 297 | 6.1 | +4.8 | +0.10 | -4.7 | 43% | +0.20 | 3 | 1 |
Rush attempts
| Player | Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo NixQB | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | +0.4 | +0.06 | 57% | +0.04 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlinRB | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | -1.2 | -0.29 | 50% | -0.01 | 0 |
| RJ HarveyRB | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | -1.7 | -0.29 | 17% | +0.04 | 0 |
Pass targets
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Mims Jr.WR | 8 | 8 | 93 | 11.6 | +8.2 | +1.02 | 63% | +0.27 | 1 |
| Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR | 5 | 2 | 33 | 6.6 | +2.2 | +0.44 | 40% | -0.12 | 1 |
| Frank CrumOT | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | +2.0 | +2.03 | 100% | +0.04 | 1 |
| Pat BryantWR | 3 | 3 | 32 | 10.7 | +1.8 | +0.60 | 67% | +0.07 | 0 |
| RJ HarveyRB | 6 | 5 | 46 | 7.7 | +1.5 | +0.26 | 67% | +0.17 | 0 |
| Courtland SuttonWR | 9 | 4 | 53 | 5.9 | +0.4 | +0.04 | 44% | +0.06 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlinRB | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | -0.5 | -0.48 | 0% | -0.02 | 0 |
| Nate AdkinsTE | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | -0.6 | -0.57 | 0% | -0.03 | 0 |
| Adam PrenticeFB | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | -0.8 | -0.83 | 0% | -0.02 | 0 |
| Adam TrautmanTE | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | -1.1 | -0.54 | 0% | -0.03 | 0 |
| Tyler BadieRB | 2 | 1 | 7 | 3.5 | -1.7 | -0.86 | 50% | -0.02 | 0 |
| Evan EngramTE | 3 | 1 | 7 | 2.3 | -6.1 | -2.03 | 0% | -0.16 | 0 |