Texans
30–6
HOU @ PIT
Steelers
Final · Mon, Jan 12, 2026 · 2025 Wild Card · Acrisure Stadium
Ground Share
Texans dominated the field
Teams with this edge win 98% of the time
HOU 70%30% PIT
56.2%GROUND23.8%
Win Probability
Preparing chart…
QB Matchup
| QB | Plays | EPA/play | Total EPA | aDoT | CMP% | xCMP% | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Stroud | 35 | +0.01 | +0.4 | 9.0 | 65.6% | 65.9% | -0.3 |
| A.Rodgers | 37 | -0.72 | -26.6 | 8.8 | 51.5% | 64.1% | -7.4 |
Team Stats
| Metric | HOU | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| EPA / Play | +0.06 | -0.52 |
| EPA / Dropback | +0.01 | -0.67 |
| EPA / Rush | +0.12 | -0.28 |
| Success Rate | 48.5% | 29.8% |
| Explosive Play Rate | 29.4% | 17.5% |
| Yards / Play | 6.00 | 3.07 |
| Early-Down EPA / Play | -0.10 | -0.32 |
| 3rd/4th-Down Conversion | 66.7% | 23.5% |
| Avg 3rd-Down Distance | 5.5 | 10.5 |
| Line Yards / Carry | 4.20 | 2.51 |
| Opportunity Rate (4+) | 64.5% | 38.9% |
| Stuff Rate | 6.5% | 33.3% |
| Havoc Rate Allowed | 11.8% | 17.5% |
| Avg Starting Field Position | 19.3 | 33.2 |
| Plays | 68 | 57 |
| Total Yards | 408 | 175 |
| Total EPA | +4.3 | -29.8 |
| Giveaways | 3 | 2 |
Player Stats
HOU
Dropbacks
| Player | DB | C/Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | CPOE | SR | WPA | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. StroudQB | 35 | 21/32 | 244 | 7.0 | +0.4 | +0.01 | -0.3 | 46% | -0.23 | 1 | 1 |
Rush attempts
| Player | Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woody MarksRB | 19 | 112 | 5.9 | +4.0 | +0.21 | 53% | +0.09 | 1 |
| Nick ChubbRB | 10 | 48 | 4.8 | +2.7 | +0.27 | 60% | +0.07 | 0 |
| Cade StoverTE | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.1 | +0.06 | 100% | +0.04 | 0 |
| C.J. StroudQB | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | -1.4 | -1.38 | 0% | -0.05 | 0 |
Pass targets
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian KirkWR | 9 | 8 | 144 | 16.0 | +13.5 | +1.50 | 89% | +0.37 | 1 |
| Jayden HigginsWR | 4 | 3 | 39 | 9.8 | +2.0 | +0.50 | 75% | -0.02 | 0 |
| Cade StoverTE | 2 | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | +0.7 | +0.35 | 100% | +0.02 | 0 |
| Dalton SchultzTE | 4 | 3 | 12 | 3.0 | +0.3 | +0.08 | 25% | +0.04 | 0 |
| Woody MarksRB | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.16 | 0% | -0.04 | 0 |
| Jaylin NoelWR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | -0.3 | -0.27 | 0% | -0.03 | 0 |
| Nico CollinsWR | 7 | 3 | 21 | 3.0 | -1.7 | -0.25 | 14% | -0.10 | 0 |
| Xavier HutchinsonWR | 4 | 2 | 21 | 5.3 | -2.8 | -0.69 | 25% | -0.11 | 0 |
PIT
Dropbacks
| Player | DB | C/Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | CPOE | SR | WPA | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason RudolphQB | 1 | 1/1 | 2 | 2.0 | +1.3 | +1.26 | +30.6 | 100% | +0.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron RodgersQB | 37 | 17/33 | 110 | 3.0 | -26.6 | -0.72 | -7.4 | 19% | -0.64 | 0 | 1 |
Rush attempts
| Player | Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny GainwellRB | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | -1.4 | -0.24 | 50% | -0.07 | 0 |
| Jaylen WarrenRB | 12 | 43 | 3.6 | -3.7 | -0.31 | 42% | -0.09 | 0 |
Pass targets
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam ThielenWR | 2 | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | +3.6 | +1.82 | 100% | +0.12 | 0 |
| DK MetcalfWR | 5 | 2 | 42 | 8.4 | +0.3 | +0.06 | 40% | +0.02 | 0 |
| Jaylen WarrenRB | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | -0.4 | -0.38 | 0% | +0.00 | 0 |
| Jonnu SmithTE | 3 | 2 | -1 | -0.3 | -1.5 | -0.51 | 0% | -0.07 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin IIIWR | 6 | 3 | 8 | 1.3 | -1.6 | -0.27 | 17% | -0.13 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR | 5 | 3 | 26 | 5.2 | -1.8 | -0.35 | 20% | -0.01 | 0 |
| Kenny GainwellRB | 6 | 4 | 26 | 4.3 | -3.9 | -0.64 | 17% | -0.04 | 0 |
| Pat FreiermuthTE | 3 | 1 | 18 | 6.0 | -4.8 | -1.60 | 33% | +0.01 | 0 |