Bills
27–24
BUF @ JAX
Jaguars
Final · Sun, Jan 11, 2026 · 2025 Wild Card · TIAA Bank Stadium
Ground Share
Bills had the edge on the field
Teams with this edge win 71% of the time
BUF 54%46% JAX
60.5%GROUND51.4%
Win Probability
Preparing chart…
QB Matchup
| QB | Plays | EPA/play | Total EPA | aDoT | CMP% | xCMP% | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen | 36 | +0.27 | +9.8 | 7.9 | 80.0% | 68.7% | +11.3 |
| T.Lawrence | 31 | +0.02 | +0.7 | 9.7 | 60.0% | 65.0% | -5.0 |
Team Stats
| Metric | BUF | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| EPA / Play | +0.22 | +0.05 |
| EPA / Dropback | +0.24 | +0.02 |
| EPA / Rush | +0.19 | +0.04 |
| Success Rate | 47.5% | 52.7% |
| Explosive Play Rate | 27.9% | 25.4% |
| Yards / Play | 5.61 | 6.53 |
| Early-Down EPA / Play | +0.13 | +0.06 |
| 3rd/4th-Down Conversion | 56.3% | 54.5% |
| Avg 3rd-Down Distance | 6.3 | 5.3 |
| Line Yards / Carry | 2.71 | 4.27 |
| Opportunity Rate (4+) | 28.6% | 52.4% |
| Stuff Rate | 9.5% | 9.5% |
| Havoc Rate Allowed | 0.0% | 18.2% |
| Avg Starting Field Position | 29.4 | 30.1 |
| Plays | 61 | 55 |
| Total Yards | 342 | 359 |
| Total EPA | +13.7 | +3.0 |
| Giveaways | 0 | 2 |
Player Stats
BUF
Dropbacks
| Player | DB | C/Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | CPOE | SR | WPA | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB | 39 | 28/35 | 276 | 7.1 | +9.4 | +0.24 | +11.3 | 49% | +0.46 | 1 | 0 |
Rush attempts
| Player | Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | +7.0 | +1.17 | 83% | +0.41 | 2 |
| James CookRB | 15 | 46 | 3.1 | -1.8 | -0.12 | 33% | -0.03 | 0 |
Pass targets
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin CooksWR | 5 | 3 | 58 | 11.6 | +3.3 | +0.66 | 60% | +0.24 | 0 |
| Keon ColemanWR | 1 | 1 | 36 | 36.0 | +2.8 | +2.77 | 100% | +0.09 | 0 |
| Khalil ShakirWR | 12 | 12 | 82 | 6.8 | +2.6 | +0.21 | 50% | +0.00 | 0 |
| Gabe DavisWR | 3 | 2 | 14 | 4.7 | +1.6 | +0.54 | 67% | +0.03 | 0 |
| Dalton KincaidTE | 5 | 3 | 28 | 5.6 | +1.5 | +0.29 | 60% | +0.11 | 1 |
| Tyrell ShaversWR | 2 | 1 | 14 | 7.0 | +1.3 | +0.63 | 50% | +0.04 | 0 |
| Dawson KnoxTE | 3 | 3 | 30 | 10.0 | +0.1 | +0.05 | 33% | +0.08 | 0 |
| Frank Gore Jr.RB | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | +0.1 | +0.12 | 100% | +0.01 | 0 |
| James CookRB | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1.7 | -1.4 | -0.47 | 0% | -0.05 | 0 |
JAX
Dropbacks
| Player | DB | C/Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | CPOE | SR | WPA | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor LawrenceQB | 33 | 18/30 | 233 | 7.1 | +0.7 | +0.02 | -5.1 | 49% | +0.19 | 3 | 2 |
Rush attempts
| Player | Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bhayshul TutenRB | 4 | 51 | 12.8 | +3.2 | +0.80 | 75% | +0.13 | 0 |
| Travis EtienneRB | 10 | 67 | 6.7 | +2.7 | +0.27 | 70% | +0.07 | 0 |
| LeQuint Allen Jr.RB | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | -0.3 | -0.30 | 0% | -0.01 | 0 |
| Parker WashingtonWR | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | -0.9 | -0.48 | 50% | -0.03 | 0 |
| Trevor LawrenceQB | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | -3.8 | -0.94 | 25% | -0.10 | 0 |
Pass targets
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis EtienneRB | 5 | 5 | 49 | 9.8 | +4.6 | +0.93 | 80% | +0.19 | 1 |
| Brian Thomas Jr.WR | 2 | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | +3.3 | +1.63 | 100% | +0.14 | 1 |
| LeQuint Allen Jr.RB | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | +0.1 | +0.06 | 100% | +0.02 | 0 |
| Tim PatrickWR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | -0.4 | -0.44 | 0% | -0.03 | 0 |
| Parker WashingtonWR | 12 | 7 | 107 | 8.9 | -0.8 | -0.06 | 50% | +0.15 | 1 |
| Brenton StrangeTE | 5 | 2 | 9 | 1.8 | -1.7 | -0.34 | 20% | -0.06 | 0 |
| Jakobi MeyersWR | 4 | 1 | 12 | 3.0 | -3.1 | -0.78 | 25% | -0.21 | 0 |