Colts
30–38
IND @ HOU
Texans
Final · Sun, Jan 4, 2026 · 2025 Week 18 · NRG Stadium
Ground Share
Texans had the edge on the field
Teams with this edge win 71% of the time
IND 45%55% HOU
43.5%GROUND52.8%
Win Probability
Preparing chart…
Expected Points
Preparing chart…
QB Matchup
| QB | Plays | EPA/play | Success% | Sack% | Total EPA | aDoT | CMP% | xCMP% | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Leonard | 37 | -0.05 | 37.8% | 2.7% | -1.9 | 9.3 | 65.6% | 64.5% | +1.1 |
| C.Stroud | 23 | +0.19 | 52.2% | 0.0% | +4.4 | 7.0 | 66.7% | 71.2% | -4.6 |
Team Stats
| Metric | IND | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| EPA / Play | -0.03 | +0.01 |
| EPA / Dropback | +0.04 | -0.03 |
| EPA / Rush | -0.21 | +0.01 |
| Success Rate | 39.4% | 46.3% |
| Explosive Play Rate | 24.2% | 23.9% |
| Yards / Play | 5.36 | 5.06 |
| Early-Down EPA / Play | -0.34 | +0.07 |
| 3rd/4th-Down Conversion | 56.3% | 30.8% |
| Avg 3rd-Down Distance | 6.5 | 8.7 |
| Line Yards / Carry | 1.76 | 3.27 |
| Opportunity Rate (4+) | 26.9% | 43.3% |
| Stuff Rate | 26.9% | 13.3% |
| Havoc Rate Allowed | 16.7% | 6.0% |
| Avg Starting Field Position | 26.1 | 41.6 |
| Plays | 66 | 67 |
| Total Yards | 354 | 339 |
| Total EPA | -2.1 | +0.4 |
| Giveaways | 3 | 0 |
Special Teams
Texans won the kicking game
Teams with this edge win 63% of the time
IND 33%67% HOU
4.5 pts wonSPECIAL TEAMS9.3 pts won
Biggest swing · K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD — HOU +1.3
Kickoffs · HOU +0.6Punts · HOU +1.3Kicks · HOU +2.9
Player Stats
IND
Dropbacks
| Player | DB | C/Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | CPOE | SR | WPA | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rigoberto SanchezP | 1 | 1/1 | 16 | 16.0 | +3.5 | +3.51 | +38.5 | 100% | +0.10 | 0 | 0 |
| Riley LeonardQB | 37 | 21/34 | 282 | 7.6 | -1.9 | -0.05 | +1.1 | 38% | +0.00 | 2 | 1 |
Rush attempts
| Player | Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley LeonardQB | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +0.5 | +0.51 | 100% | -0.01 | 1 |
| Tyler GoodsonRB | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | -0.3 | -0.28 | 0% | +0.01 | 0 |
| DJ GiddensRB | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | -0.3 | -0.04 | 50% | +0.00 | 0 |
| Ameer AbdullahRB | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | -0.5 | -0.51 | 0% | -0.02 | 0 |
| Josh DownsWR | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | -1.3 | -1.32 | 0% | -0.03 | 0 |
| Jonathan TaylorRB | 14 | 26 | 1.9 | -4.3 | -0.31 | 29% | -0.13 | 0 |
Pass targets
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec PierceWR | 7 | 4 | 132 | 18.9 | +10.1 | +1.44 | 43% | +0.25 | 2 |
| Ameer AbdullahRB | 2 | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | +2.9 | +1.45 | 100% | +0.12 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-CoxTE | 4 | 3 | 22 | 5.5 | +2.8 | +0.70 | 50% | +0.06 | 0 |
| Jonathan TaylorRB | 2 | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | +1.0 | +0.49 | 50% | +0.03 | 0 |
| Ashton DulinWR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | -1.2 | -0.60 | 0% | -0.04 | 0 |
| Michael PittmanWR | 4 | 2 | 20 | 5.0 | -1.6 | -0.39 | 25% | -0.06 | 0 |
| Josh DownsWR | 4 | 4 | 49 | 12.3 | -2.8 | -0.70 | 50% | -0.01 | 0 |
| Tyler WarrenTE | 8 | 5 | 26 | 3.3 | -5.1 | -0.63 | 25% | -0.19 | 0 |
Kicking
| Player | FG | Long | XP | KO | TB | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake GrupeK | 3/3(50, 39, 22) | 50 | 3/3 | 7 | 1 | 12 |
Punting
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Net | Long | In 20 | TB | Blk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rigoberto SanchezP | 2 | 90 | 45.0 | 42.0 | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton DulinWR | 2 | 59 | 29.5 | 30 | 0 |
| Ameer AbdullahRB | 2 | 53 | 26.5 | 30 | 0 |
Punt returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh DownsWR | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 13 | 0 |
HOU
Dropbacks
| Player | DB | C/Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | CPOE | SR | WPA | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. StroudQB | 23 | 14/22 | 172 | 7.5 | +4.4 | +0.19 | -4.6 | 52% | +0.15 | 1 | 0 |
| Davis MillsQB | 10 | 3/9 | 48 | 4.8 | -5.4 | -0.54 | -35.2 | 30% | -0.07 | 0 | 0 |
Rush attempts
| Player | Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woody MarksRB | 10 | 48 | 4.8 | +3.0 | +0.30 | 60% | +0.13 | 0 |
| C.J. StroudQB | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | +0.7 | +0.71 | 100% | +0.02 | 1 |
| British BrooksRB | 13 | 63 | 4.8 | -0.1 | -0.01 | 46% | -0.08 | 0 |
| Dare OgunbowaleRB | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | -0.1 | -0.10 | 0% | +0.00 | 0 |
| Jawhar JordanRB | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | -3.7 | -0.75 | 0% | -0.12 | 0 |
Pass targets
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton SchultzTE | 4 | 4 | 73 | 18.3 | +5.9 | +1.48 | 100% | +0.19 | 0 |
| Xavier HutchinsonWR | 9 | 5 | 84 | 9.3 | +2.5 | +0.27 | 56% | +0.13 | 0 |
| Jaylin NoelWR | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | +0.6 | +0.60 | 100% | +0.05 | 0 |
| Cade StoverTE | 2 | 1 | 9 | 4.5 | +0.5 | +0.23 | 50% | +0.01 | 0 |
| Jayden HigginsWR | 5 | 2 | 23 | 4.6 | -0.3 | -0.05 | 40% | +0.02 | 1 |
| Woody MarksRB | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | -1.4 | -0.48 | 0% | -0.07 | 0 |
| Christian KirkWR | 2 | 1 | -3 | -1.5 | -1.8 | -0.88 | 0% | -0.06 | 0 |
| Dare OgunbowaleRB | 2 | 1 | 6 | 3.0 | -2.5 | -1.24 | 0% | -0.05 | 0 |
Kicking
| Player | FG | Long | XP | KO | TB | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ka'imi FairbairnK | 6/6(51, 48, 29, 43, 44, 43) | 51 | 2/2 | 8 | 4 | 20 |
Punting
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Net | Long | In 20 | TB | Blk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy TownsendP | 3 | 121 | 40.3 | 36.0 | 45 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylin NoelWR | 6 | 175 | 29.2 | 43 | 0 |
Punt returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylin NoelWR | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 6 | 0 |