Panthers
14–16
CAR @ TB
Buccaneers
Final · Sat, Jan 3, 2026 · 2025 Week 18 · Raymond James Stadium
Ground Share
Buccaneers had the edge on the field
Teams with this edge win 71% of the time
CAR 47%53% TB
45.8%GROUND51.4%
Win Probability
Preparing chart…
Expected Points
Preparing chart…
QB Matchup
| QB | Plays | EPA/play | Success% | Sack% | Total EPA | aDoT | CMP% | xCMP% | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Young | 34 | +0.19 | 47.1% | 0.0% | +6.4 | 7.5 | 80.0% | 68.7% | +11.3 |
| B.Mayfield | 28 | +0.33 | 64.3% | 7.1% | +9.3 | 6.5 | 72.7% | 67.3% | +5.5 |
Team Stats
| Metric | CAR | TB |
|---|---|---|
| EPA / Play | -0.04 | +0.02 |
| EPA / Dropback | +0.19 | +0.33 |
| EPA / Rush | -0.57 | -0.24 |
| Success Rate | 42.9% | 44.8% |
| Explosive Play Rate | 22.4% | 20.9% |
| Yards / Play | 5.84 | 5.04 |
| Early-Down EPA / Play | +0.02 | -0.02 |
| 3rd/4th-Down Conversion | 27.3% | 53.3% |
| Avg 3rd-Down Distance | 8.6 | 6.3 |
| Line Yards / Carry | 1.45 | 2.55 |
| Opportunity Rate (4+) | 23.1% | 34.2% |
| Stuff Rate | 46.2% | 13.2% |
| Havoc Rate Allowed | 8.2% | 10.4% |
| Avg Starting Field Position | 30.6 | 26.9 |
| Plays | 49 | 67 |
| Total Yards | 286 | 338 |
| Total EPA | -1.7 | +1.2 |
| Giveaways | 3 | 1 |
Special Teams
Special teams were a wash
CAR 50%50% TB
7.2 pts wonSPECIAL TEAMS7.0 pts won
Biggest swing · R.Fitzgerald 54 yard field goal is No Good, Short — TB +4.0
Kickoffs · CAR +2.8Punts · TB +0.9Kicks · TB +1.8
Player Stats
CAR
Dropbacks
| Player | DB | C/Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | CPOE | SR | WPA | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce YoungQB | 34 | 24/34 | 266 | 7.8 | +6.4 | +0.19 | +11.3 | 47% | +0.03 | 2 | 1 |
Rush attempts
| Player | Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba HubbardRB | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | +1.2 | +0.24 | 40% | +0.00 | 0 |
| Bryce YoungQB | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | -1.5 | -1.50 | 0% | -0.06 | 0 |
| Rico DowdleRB | 7 | 10 | 1.4 | -7.1 | -1.01 | 29% | -0.21 | 0 |
Pass targets
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillanWR | 6 | 4 | 84 | 14.0 | +4.5 | +0.74 | 67% | +0.07 | 0 |
| Tommy TrembleTE | 4 | 3 | 38 | 9.5 | +4.0 | +1.00 | 75% | +0.06 | 1 |
| Rico DowdleRB | 2 | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | +0.9 | +0.45 | 50% | +0.03 | 0 |
| Jimmy Horn Jr.WR | 1 | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | +0.7 | +0.73 | 100% | +0.02 | 0 |
| Brycen TremayneWR | 2 | 2 | 27 | 13.5 | +0.6 | +0.30 | 50% | +0.01 | 0 |
| Xavier LegetteWR | 4 | 3 | 22 | 5.5 | +0.3 | +0.07 | 75% | +0.05 | 0 |
| Jalen CokerWR | 7 | 6 | 48 | 6.9 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 29% | -0.10 | 1 |
| Mitchell EvansTE | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2.5 | -0.9 | -0.43 | 50% | -0.04 | 0 |
| Chuba HubbardRB | 2 | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | -0.9 | -0.45 | 0% | -0.02 | 0 |
Kicking
| Player | FG | Long | XP | KO | TB | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan FitzgeraldK | 0/1(missed 54) | — | 2/2 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
Punting
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Net | Long | In 20 | TB | Blk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam MartinP | 3 | 139 | 46.3 | 39.7 | 50 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Punt returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor EtienneRB | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 3 | 0 |
| Brycen TremayneWR | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
TB
Dropbacks
| Player | DB | C/Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | CPOE | SR | WPA | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker MayfieldQB | 28 | 16/22 | 229 | 8.2 | +9.3 | +0.33 | +5.5 | 64% | +0.35 | 1 | 1 |
Rush attempts
| Player | Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tez JohnsonWR | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | -0.1 | -0.09 | 0% | -0.01 | 0 |
| Rachaad WhiteRB | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | -2.2 | -0.31 | 14% | -0.04 | 0 |
| Sean TuckerRB | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | -3.2 | -0.80 | 0% | -0.09 | 0 |
| Bucky IrvingRB | 26 | 85 | 3.3 | -3.4 | -0.13 | 39% | +0.09 | 0 |
Pass targets
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade OttonTE | 9 | 7 | 94 | 10.4 | +4.1 | +0.46 | 67% | +0.18 | 1 |
| Mike EvansWR | 2 | 2 | 34 | 17.0 | +3.2 | +1.61 | 100% | +0.07 | 0 |
| Rachaad WhiteRB | 2 | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | +2.1 | +1.05 | 100% | +0.07 | 0 |
| Jalen McMillanWR | 1 | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | +1.8 | +1.78 | 100% | +0.03 | 0 |
| Tez JohnsonWR | 1 | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | +1.4 | +1.44 | 100% | +0.02 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr.WR | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | +0.9 | +0.88 | 100% | +0.02 | 0 |
| Bucky IrvingRB | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6.5 | +0.6 | +0.30 | 50% | +0.02 | 0 |
| Payne DurhamTE | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | -0.5 | -0.47 | 0% | -0.01 | 0 |
| Emeka EgbukaWR | 3 | 1 | 8 | 2.7 | -4.8 | -1.60 | 33% | -0.08 | 0 |
Kicking
| Player | FG | Long | XP | KO | TB | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase McLaughlinK | 3/4(29, 36, 48 · blocked 38) | 48 | 1/1 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
Punting
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Net | Long | In 20 | TB | Blk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley DixonP | 3 | 130 | 43.3 | 42.3 | 46 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean TuckerRB | 3 | 57 | 19.0 | 21 | 0 |
Punt returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kameron JohnsonWR | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |