Bills
35–31
BUF @ NE
Patriots
Final · Sun, Dec 14, 2025 · 2025 Week 15 · Gillette Stadium
Ground Share
Bills had the edge on the field
Teams with this edge win 71% of the time
BUF 53%47% NE
58.0%GROUND51.6%
Win Probability
Preparing chart…
QB Matchup
| QB | Plays | EPA/play | Total EPA | aDoT | CMP% | xCMP% | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen | 30 | +0.32 | +9.5 | 9.6 | 67.9% | 62.7% | +10.4 |
| D.Maye | 26 | -0.13 | -3.4 | 10.6 | 60.9% | 64.2% | -0.5 |
Team Stats
| Metric | BUF | NE |
|---|---|---|
| EPA / Play | +0.28 | +0.23 |
| EPA / Dropback | +0.29 | -0.02 |
| EPA / Rush | +0.23 | +0.59 |
| Success Rate | 47.8% | 53.8% |
| Explosive Play Rate | 26.9% | 34.6% |
| Yards / Play | 5.25 | 7.40 |
| Early-Down EPA / Play | +0.10 | +0.36 |
| 3rd/4th-Down Conversion | 64.7% | 41.7% |
| Avg 3rd-Down Distance | 5.3 | 7.4 |
| Line Yards / Carry | 4.01 | 6.09 |
| Opportunity Rate (4+) | 54.8% | 72.7% |
| Stuff Rate | 6.5% | 18.2% |
| Havoc Rate Allowed | 7.5% | 13.5% |
| Avg Starting Field Position | 39.3 | 25.4 |
| Plays | 67 | 52 |
| Total Yards | 352 | 385 |
| Total EPA | +18.5 | +12.0 |
| Giveaways | 0 | 1 |
Player Stats
BUF
Dropbacks
| Player | DB | C/Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | CPOE | SR | WPA | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB | 33 | 19/28 | 195 | 5.9 | +9.5 | +0.29 | +10.4 | 46% | +0.35 | 3 | 0 |
Rush attempts
| Player | Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James CookRB | 22 | 107 | 4.9 | +4.6 | +0.21 | 46% | +0.11 | 2 |
| Josh AllenQB | 5 | 37 | 7.4 | +3.2 | +0.64 | 80% | +0.09 | 0 |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | -0.7 | -0.17 | 25% | -0.03 | 0 |
Pass targets
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawson KnoxTE | 4 | 3 | 37 | 9.3 | +6.5 | +1.64 | 75% | +0.17 | 2 |
| Khalil ShakirWR | 5 | 5 | 65 | 13.0 | +4.8 | +0.97 | 60% | +0.27 | 0 |
| Dalton KincaidTE | 4 | 3 | 34 | 8.5 | +1.6 | +0.41 | 75% | +0.06 | 0 |
| Josh PalmerWR | 2 | 1 | 16 | 8.0 | +1.2 | +0.61 | 50% | +0.01 | 0 |
| Ray DavisRB | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | +0.9 | +0.86 | 100% | +0.02 | 0 |
| Jackson HawesTE | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | +0.8 | +0.78 | 100% | +0.01 | 0 |
| James CookRB | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.3 | +0.1 | +0.05 | 33% | -0.03 | 1 |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 3 | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | -0.7 | -0.22 | 33% | -0.01 | 0 |
| Brandin CooksWR | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | -1.7 | -0.57 | 0% | -0.08 | 0 |
NE
Dropbacks
| Player | DB | C/Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | CPOE | SR | WPA | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake MayeQB | 29 | 14/23 | 174 | 6.0 | -0.5 | -0.01 | -0.5 | 52% | -0.27 | 0 | 1 |
Rush attempts
| Player | Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TreVeyon HendersonRB | 14 | 148 | 10.6 | +8.3 | +0.59 | 50% | +0.25 | 2 |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB | 6 | 50 | 8.3 | +3.0 | +0.50 | 67% | +0.08 | 0 |
| Drake MayeQB | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | +1.4 | +1.42 | 100% | +0.01 | 1 |
| DeMario DouglasWR | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | +0.2 | +0.23 | 100% | +0.00 | 0 |
Pass targets
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayshon BoutteWR | 1 | 1 | 30 | 30.0 | +3.1 | +3.10 | 100% | +0.12 | 0 |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB | 3 | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | +1.0 | +0.34 | 67% | +0.01 | 0 |
| TreVeyon HendersonRB | 3 | 2 | 13 | 4.3 | -0.2 | -0.07 | 67% | -0.06 | 0 |
| Mack HollinsWR | 8 | 4 | 41 | 5.1 | -0.3 | -0.04 | 50% | -0.05 | 0 |
| Hunter HenryTE | 3 | 1 | 18 | 6.0 | -0.4 | -0.12 | 33% | -0.08 | 0 |
| Stefon DiggsWR | 4 | 3 | 26 | 6.5 | -1.3 | -0.33 | 50% | -0.07 | 0 |