Broncos
27–26
DEN @ WAS
Commanders
Final/OT · Sun, Nov 30, 2025 · 2025 Week 13 · FedExField
Ground Share
Commanders had the edge on the field
Teams with this edge win 71% of the time
DEN 47%53% WAS
53.7%GROUND61.1%
Win Probability
Preparing chart…
QB Matchup
| QB | Plays | EPA/play | Total EPA | aDoT | CMP% | xCMP% | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Nix | 46 | +0.21 | +9.9 | 4.2 | 64.4% | 71.5% | -4.0 |
| M.Mariota | 53 | -0.01 | -0.3 | 12.0 | 54.9% | 59.0% | +3.2 |
Team Stats
| Metric | DEN | WAS |
|---|---|---|
| EPA / Play | +0.15 | +0.10 |
| EPA / Dropback | +0.24 | +0.06 |
| EPA / Rush | +0.05 | +0.09 |
| Success Rate | 44.3% | 42.0% |
| Explosive Play Rate | 25.7% | 27.3% |
| Yards / Play | 5.74 | 4.77 |
| Early-Down EPA / Play | +0.12 | -0.13 |
| 3rd/4th-Down Conversion | 47.1% | 56.5% |
| Avg 3rd-Down Distance | 6.2 | 8.4 |
| Line Yards / Carry | 2.68 | 2.88 |
| Opportunity Rate (4+) | 33.3% | 44.8% |
| Stuff Rate | 19.1% | 27.6% |
| Havoc Rate Allowed | 10.0% | 17.1% |
| Avg Starting Field Position | 25.1 | 31.2 |
| Plays | 70 | 88 |
| Total Yards | 402 | 420 |
| Total EPA | +10.7 | +8.8 |
| Giveaways | 1 | 1 |
Player Stats
DEN
Dropbacks
| Player | DB | C/Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | CPOE | SR | WPA | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo NixQB | 48 | 29/45 | 331 | 6.9 | +11.7 | +0.24 | -4.0 | 46% | +0.71 | 1 | 1 |
Rush attempts
| Player | Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Mims Jr.WR | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | +0.9 | +0.89 | 100% | +0.04 | 0 |
| Adam PrenticeFB | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | +0.6 | +0.60 | 100% | +0.02 | 0 |
| RJ HarveyRB | 13 | 35 | 2.7 | +0.4 | +0.03 | 46% | -0.15 | 2 |
| Jaleel McLaughlinRB | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | -0.9 | -0.15 | 17% | -0.02 | 0 |
Pass targets
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland SuttonWR | 6 | 5 | 62 | 10.3 | +6.4 | +1.07 | 67% | +0.21 | 1 |
| Adam TrautmanTE | 4 | 3 | 47 | 11.8 | +5.0 | +1.25 | 75% | +0.18 | 0 |
| Adam PrenticeFB | 1 | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | +1.8 | +1.81 | 100% | +0.07 | 0 |
| Evan EngramTE | 9 | 6 | 79 | 8.8 | +1.8 | +0.20 | 44% | +0.32 | 0 |
| RJ HarveyRB | 4 | 3 | 27 | 6.8 | +1.0 | +0.25 | 75% | +0.07 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr.WR | 2 | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | +0.4 | +0.21 | 50% | +0.02 | 0 |
| Troy FranklinWR | 3 | 2 | 21 | 7.0 | -0.1 | -0.03 | 33% | -0.02 | 0 |
| Tyler BadieRB | 5 | 3 | 18 | 3.6 | -0.2 | -0.04 | 20% | +0.00 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlinRB | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | -0.3 | -0.34 | 0% | +0.01 | 0 |
| Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | -0.5 | -0.46 | 0% | -0.02 | 0 |
| Pat BryantWR | 7 | 3 | 42 | 6.0 | -2.1 | -0.31 | 43% | -0.09 | 0 |
WAS
Dropbacks
| Player | DB | C/Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | CPOE | SR | WPA | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus MariotaQB | 55 | 28/50 | 303 | 5.5 | +3.5 | +0.06 | +3.2 | 42% | -0.20 | 2 | 1 |
Rush attempts
| Player | Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy McNicholsRB | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | +3.4 | +0.57 | 50% | +0.12 | 0 |
| Marcus MariotaQB | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | +1.5 | +0.26 | 50% | +0.07 | 0 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB | 11 | 41 | 3.7 | +0.5 | +0.05 | 36% | +0.01 | 1 |
| Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | -0.1 | -0.01 | 50% | -0.02 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr.WR | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | -1.8 | -0.89 | 0% | -0.08 | 0 |
Pass targets
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurinWR | 14 | 7 | 96 | 6.9 | +5.9 | +0.42 | 50% | -0.24 | 1 |
| Zach ErtzTE | 13 | 10 | 106 | 8.2 | +3.6 | +0.27 | 46% | +0.32 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr.WR | 7 | 5 | 64 | 9.1 | +3.4 | +0.48 | 57% | +0.21 | 0 |
| Treylon BurksWR | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1.3 | +1.3 | +0.33 | 25% | -0.01 | 1 |
| Colson YankoffTE | 1 | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | +1.0 | +1.00 | 100% | +0.06 | 0 |
| John BatesTE | 2 | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | -0.4 | -0.19 | 50% | -0.02 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNicholsRB | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | -1.3 | -0.66 | 0% | -0.06 | 0 |
| Jaylin LaneWR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | -1.8 | -1.83 | 0% | -0.03 | 0 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | -5.8 | -5.78 | 0% | -0.18 | 0 |