Bills
19–23
BUF @ HOU
Texans
Final · Thu, Nov 20, 2025 · 2025 Week 12 · NRG Stadium
Ground Share
Neither team controlled the field
BUF 51%49% HOU
40.4%GROUND38.4%
Win Probability
Preparing chart…
Expected Points
Preparing chart…
QB Matchup
| QB | Plays | EPA/play | Success% | Sack% | Total EPA | aDoT | CMP% | xCMP% | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen | 45 | -0.27 | 35.6% | 17.8% | -12.3 | 5.2 | 75.0% | 74.2% | +0.8 |
| D.Mills | 30 | -0.21 | 30.0% | 0.0% | -6.4 | 8.3 | 57.1% | 64.6% | -7.5 |
Team Stats
| Metric | BUF | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| EPA / Play | -0.16 | -0.08 |
| EPA / Dropback | -0.27 | -0.18 |
| EPA / Rush | +0.08 | +0.08 |
| Success Rate | 36.9% | 41.4% |
| Explosive Play Rate | 18.5% | 20.7% |
| Yards / Play | 5.03 | 4.52 |
| Early-Down EPA / Play | -0.27 | +0.07 |
| 3rd/4th-Down Conversion | 38.1% | 23.1% |
| Avg 3rd-Down Distance | 7.5 | 7.3 |
| Line Yards / Carry | 4.36 | 3.25 |
| Opportunity Rate (4+) | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Stuff Rate | 15.0% | 25.0% |
| Havoc Rate Allowed | 10.8% | 8.6% |
| Avg Starting Field Position | 19.0 | 37.9 |
| Plays | 65 | 58 |
| Total Yards | 327 | 262 |
| Total EPA | -10.7 | -4.5 |
| Giveaways | 3 | 0 |
Special Teams
Bills had the edge in the kicking game
Teams with this edge win 56% of the time
BUF 58%42% HOU
10.6 pts wonSPECIAL TEAMS7.8 pts won
Biggest swing · K.Fairbairn kicks 62 yards from HOU 35 to BUF 3. R.Davis for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN — BUF +5.6
Kickoffs · BUF +5.3Punts · HOU +1.8Kicks · HOU +0.7
Player Stats
BUF
Dropbacks
| Player | DB | C/Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | CPOE | SR | WPA | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB | 45 | 24/34 | 201 | 4.5 | -12.3 | -0.27 | +0.8 | 36% | -0.63 | 0 | 2 |
Rush attempts
| Player | Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | +2.4 | +2.43 | 100% | +0.05 | 0 |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | -0.3 | -0.15 | 50% | +0.05 | 0 |
| James CookRB | 17 | 116 | 6.8 | -0.5 | -0.03 | 35% | +0.11 | 1 |
Pass targets
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty JohnsonRB | 3 | 3 | 45 | 15.0 | +7.0 | +2.33 | 100% | +0.15 | 0 |
| Jackson HawesTE | 2 | 2 | 26 | 13.0 | +2.5 | +1.25 | 100% | +0.06 | 0 |
| Josh PalmerWR | 4 | 2 | 54 | 13.5 | +1.7 | +0.43 | 50% | +0.05 | 0 |
| Gabe DavisWR | 2 | 1 | 22 | 11.0 | +1.6 | +0.81 | 50% | +0.01 | 0 |
| Dawson KnoxTE | 4 | 3 | 17 | 4.3 | +0.1 | +0.03 | 75% | -0.01 | 0 |
| Reggie GilliamRB | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | -0.4 | -0.43 | 0% | -0.04 | 0 |
| James CookRB | 3 | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | -0.9 | -0.30 | 33% | -0.03 | 0 |
| Khalil ShakirWR | 10 | 8 | 77 | 7.7 | -4.6 | -0.46 | 30% | -0.11 | 0 |
| Elijah MooreWR | 3 | 1 | -3 | -1.0 | -6.1 | -2.03 | 0% | -0.19 | 0 |
Kicking
| Player | FG | Long | XP | KO | TB | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt PraterK | 2/2(44, 38) | 44 | 1/2 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
Punting
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Net | Long | In 20 | TB | Blk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch WishnowskyP | 3 | 136 | 45.3 | 45.3 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray DavisRB | 3 | 145 | 48.3 | 97 | 1 |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 22 | 0 |
Punt returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil ShakirWR | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 11 | 0 |
HOU
Dropbacks
| Player | DB | C/Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | CPOE | SR | WPA | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier HutchinsonWR | 1 | 0/0 | 9 | 9.0 | +0.9 | +0.91 | — | 100% | +0.05 | 0 | 0 |
| Davis MillsQB | 30 | 16/30 | 153 | 5.1 | -6.3 | -0.21 | -7.5 | 30% | -0.14 | 2 | 0 |
Rush attempts
| Player | Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woody MarksRB | 16 | 74 | 4.6 | +2.7 | +0.17 | 56% | +0.11 | 0 |
| Davis MillsQB | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | +1.1 | +1.11 | 100% | +0.03 | 0 |
| Jaylin NoelWR | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | +0.1 | +0.13 | 100% | +0.01 | 0 |
| Nick ChubbRB | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | -2.0 | -0.34 | 33% | -0.05 | 0 |
Pass targets
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico CollinsWR | 3 | 3 | 55 | 18.3 | +3.1 | +1.04 | 100% | +0.03 | 0 |
| Christian KirkWR | 6 | 5 | 54 | 9.0 | +0.3 | +0.04 | 33% | +0.03 | 1 |
| Jayden HigginsWR | 9 | 4 | 38 | 4.2 | -0.7 | -0.08 | 33% | -0.02 | 1 |
| Nick ChubbRB | 1 | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | -0.7 | -0.72 | 0% | -0.02 | 0 |
| Woody MarksRB | 1 | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | -1.2 | -1.18 | 0% | -0.03 | 0 |
| Cade StoverTE | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | -1.3 | -0.67 | 0% | -0.03 | 0 |
| Dalton SchultzTE | 4 | 1 | 8 | 2.0 | -1.4 | -0.34 | 25% | +0.01 | 0 |
| Jaylin NoelWR | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2.0 | -1.8 | -0.90 | 0% | -0.04 | 0 |
Kicking
| Player | FG | Long | XP | KO | TB | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ka'imi FairbairnK | 3/3(24, 43, 26) | 43 | 2/2 | 6 | 2 | 11 |
Punting
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Net | Long | In 20 | TB | Blk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy TownsendP | 6 | 286 | 47.7 | 45.2 | 57 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylin NoelWR | 4 | 96 | 24.0 | 38 | 0 |
| Tremon SmithCB | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 20 | 0 |
Punt returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylin NoelWR | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |