Buccaneers
32–44
TB @ BUF
Bills
Final · Sun, Nov 16, 2025 · 2025 Week 11 · New Era Field
Ground Share
Bills had the edge on the field
Teams with this edge win 71% of the time
TB 45%55% BUF
49.3%GROUND59.6%
Win Probability
Preparing chart…
Expected Points
Preparing chart…
QB Matchup
| QB | Plays | EPA/play | Success% | Sack% | Total EPA | aDoT | CMP% | xCMP% | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Mayfield | 33 | -0.02 | 45.5% | 3.0% | -0.6 | 7.1 | 59.3% | 67.6% | -8.3 |
| J.Allen | 32 | +0.38 | 46.9% | 0.0% | +12.2 | 11.5 | 63.3% | 64.2% | -0.8 |
Team Stats
| Metric | TB | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| EPA / Play | +0.10 | +0.30 |
| EPA / Dropback | -0.02 | +0.38 |
| EPA / Rush | +0.18 | +0.09 |
| Success Rate | 45.6% | 49.1% |
| Explosive Play Rate | 25.0% | 32.7% |
| Yards / Play | 5.41 | 7.53 |
| Early-Down EPA / Play | -0.01 | +0.05 |
| 3rd/4th-Down Conversion | 58.8% | 57.1% |
| Avg 3rd-Down Distance | 5.1 | 6.0 |
| Line Yards / Carry | 3.79 | 3.07 |
| Opportunity Rate (4+) | 47.1% | 47.6% |
| Stuff Rate | 17.6% | 19.1% |
| Havoc Rate Allowed | 13.2% | 14.5% |
| Avg Starting Field Position | 37.8 | 36.8 |
| Plays | 68 | 55 |
| Total Yards | 368 | 414 |
| Total EPA | +6.8 | +16.6 |
| Giveaways | 2 | 2 |
Special Teams
Special teams were a wash
TB 55%45% BUF
9.1 pts wonSPECIAL TEAMS7.4 pts won
Biggest swing · R.Dixon punts 46 yards to BUF 41. M.Hardman to BUF 41 for no gain. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by TB-R.Miller at BUF 43 — TB +5.2
Kickoffs · BUF +3.5Punts · TB +5.7Kicks · BUF +0.5
Player Stats
TB
Dropbacks
| Player | DB | C/Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | CPOE | SR | WPA | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker MayfieldQB | 33 | 16/28 | 191 | 5.8 | -0.6 | -0.02 | -8.3 | 46% | +0.06 | 1 | 1 |
Rush attempts
| Player | Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean TuckerRB | 19 | 106 | 5.6 | +3.4 | +0.18 | 37% | +0.12 | 2 |
| Rachaad WhiteRB | 10 | 51 | 5.1 | +2.6 | +0.26 | 50% | +0.15 | 0 |
| Baker MayfieldQB | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | +1.8 | +1.83 | 100% | +0.08 | 0 |
| Sterling ShepardWR | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.4 | +0.40 | 100% | +0.01 | 0 |
| Tez JohnsonWR | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | -2.0 | -0.66 | 33% | -0.09 | 0 |
Pass targets
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean TuckerRB | 2 | 2 | 34 | 17.0 | +3.9 | +1.95 | 100% | +0.14 | 1 |
| Sterling ShepardWR | 5 | 4 | 54 | 10.8 | +2.2 | +0.43 | 60% | +0.08 | 0 |
| Rachaad WhiteRB | 3 | 2 | 11 | 3.7 | -0.5 | -0.17 | 33% | -0.01 | 0 |
| Cade OttonTE | 5 | 2 | 28 | 5.6 | -0.7 | -0.15 | 20% | -0.09 | 0 |
| Tez JohnsonWR | 3 | 1 | 6 | 2.0 | -2.4 | -0.78 | 0% | -0.04 | 0 |
| Emeka EgbukaWR | 9 | 5 | 40 | 4.4 | -4.4 | -0.49 | 56% | -0.20 | 0 |
Kicking
| Player | FG | Long | XP | KO | TB | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase McLaughlinK | 2/2(23, 24) | 24 | 2/2 | 6 | 0 | 8 |
Punting
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Net | Long | In 20 | TB | Blk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley DixonP | 4 | 161 | 40.3 | 40.3 | 46 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kameron JohnsonWR | 5 | 136 | 27.2 | 33 | 0 |
| Owen WrightRB | 1 | 25 | 25.0 | 25 | 0 |
BUF
Dropbacks
| Player | DB | C/Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | CPOE | SR | WPA | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB | 32 | 19/30 | 337 | 10.5 | +12.2 | +0.38 | -0.8 | 47% | +0.51 | 3 | 2 |
Rush attempts
| Player | Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | +5.4 | +1.34 | 100% | +0.19 | 3 |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | +0.9 | +0.94 | 100% | +0.02 | 0 |
| James CookRB | 16 | 48 | 3.0 | -4.4 | -0.28 | 31% | -0.07 | 0 |
Pass targets
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty JohnsonRB | 2 | 2 | 61 | 30.5 | +6.4 | +3.18 | 100% | +0.22 | 1 |
| James CookRB | 3 | 3 | 66 | 22.0 | +5.2 | +1.72 | 100% | +0.18 | 1 |
| Tyrell ShaversWR | 5 | 4 | 90 | 18.0 | +4.8 | +0.96 | 60% | +0.20 | 1 |
| Gabe DavisWR | 4 | 3 | 40 | 10.0 | +4.5 | +1.11 | 75% | +0.17 | 0 |
| Curtis SamuelWR | 3 | 2 | 19 | 6.3 | +1.9 | +0.62 | 67% | +0.07 | 0 |
| Dawson KnoxTE | 3 | 1 | 23 | 7.7 | -0.4 | -0.13 | 33% | -0.03 | 0 |
| Keleki LatuTE | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | -0.4 | -0.44 | 0% | -0.02 | 0 |
| Mecole HardmanWR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | -0.5 | -0.51 | 0% | -0.02 | 0 |
| Khalil ShakirWR | 3 | 1 | -3 | -1.0 | -2.3 | -0.75 | 0% | -0.10 | 0 |
| Josh PalmerWR | 5 | 2 | 17 | 3.4 | -5.7 | -1.13 | 20% | -0.18 | 0 |
Kicking
| Player | FG | Long | XP | KO | TB | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt PraterK | 1/1(39) | 39 | 5/5 | 8 | 2 | 8 |
Punting
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Net | Long | In 20 | TB | Blk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch WishnowskyP | 2 | 83 | 41.5 | 41.5 | 51 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray DavisRB | 4 | 158 | 39.5 | 44 | 0 |
| Mecole HardmanWR | 1 | 61 | 61.0 | 61 | 0 |
| Curtis SamuelWR | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 15 | 0 |
Punt returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mecole HardmanWR | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |