Saints
19–31
NO @ BUF
Bills
Final · Sun, Sep 28, 2025 · 2025 Week 4 · New Era Field
Ground Share
Neither team controlled the field
NO 51%49% BUF
48.9%GROUND46.9%
Win Probability
Preparing chart…
Expected Points
Preparing chart…
QB Matchup
| QB | Plays | EPA/play | Success% | Sack% | Total EPA | aDoT | CMP% | xCMP% | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Rattler | 34 | -0.10 | 44.1% | 8.8% | -3.3 | 5.0 | 75.0% | 67.9% | +7.1 |
| J.Allen | 28 | +0.30 | 46.4% | 10.7% | +8.3 | 10.2 | 72.7% | 63.5% | +9.3 |
Team Stats
| Metric | NO | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| EPA / Play | -0.07 | +0.16 |
| EPA / Dropback | -0.20 | +0.30 |
| EPA / Rush | +0.07 | +0.07 |
| Success Rate | 43.9% | 46.4% |
| Explosive Play Rate | 27.3% | 30.4% |
| Yards / Play | 4.52 | 6.41 |
| Early-Down EPA / Play | +0.12 | +0.28 |
| 3rd/4th-Down Conversion | 33.3% | 30.0% |
| Avg 3rd-Down Distance | 7.0 | 7.3 |
| Line Yards / Carry | 3.75 | 4.09 |
| Opportunity Rate (4+) | 40.0% | 65.4% |
| Stuff Rate | 10.0% | 11.5% |
| Havoc Rate Allowed | 7.6% | 8.9% |
| Avg Starting Field Position | 39.0 | 23.4 |
| Plays | 66 | 56 |
| Total Yards | 298 | 359 |
| Total EPA | -4.7 | +9.1 |
| Giveaways | 1 | 1 |
Special Teams
Saints had the edge in the kicking game
Teams with this edge win 56% of the time
NO 64%36% BUF
5.5 pts wonSPECIAL TEAMS3.2 pts won
Biggest swing · B.Grupe 54 yard field goal is GOOD — NO +1.3
Kickoffs · BUF +0.4Punts · NO +1.7Kicks · NO +1.2
Player Stats
NO
Dropbacks
| Player | DB | C/Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | CPOE | SR | WPA | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer RattlerQB | 34 | 18/27 | 152 | 4.5 | -3.3 | -0.10 | +7.1 | 44% | -0.10 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris OlaveWR | 1 | 0/1 | 0 | 0.0 | -3.6 | -3.60 | -55.1 | 0% | -0.09 | 0 | 1 |
Rush attempts
| Player | Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendre MillerRB | 11 | 65 | 5.9 | +2.9 | +0.27 | 46% | +0.09 | 1 |
| Spencer RattlerQB | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | +1.1 | +0.53 | 100% | +0.05 | 0 |
| Rashid ShaheedWR | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | -0.4 | -0.21 | 50% | -0.02 | 0 |
| Alvin KamaraRB | 15 | 70 | 4.7 | -1.9 | -0.13 | 33% | -0.05 | 0 |
Pass targets
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin CooksWR | 4 | 3 | 22 | 5.5 | +1.3 | +0.31 | 75% | -0.04 | 0 |
| Juwan JohnsonTE | 3 | 3 | 28 | 9.3 | +1.0 | +0.33 | 67% | +0.04 | 0 |
| Chris OlaveWR | 6 | 3 | 20 | 3.3 | +0.8 | +0.14 | 50% | +0.06 | 1 |
| Jack StollTE | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.5 | +0.45 | 100% | +0.01 | 0 |
| Rashid ShaheedWR | 5 | 4 | 47 | 9.4 | +0.4 | +0.08 | 40% | +0.01 | 0 |
| Spencer RattlerQB | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | -3.6 | -3.60 | 0% | -0.09 | 0 |
| Alvin KamaraRB | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.4 | -5.0 | -0.99 | 0% | -0.13 | 0 |
Kicking
| Player | FG | Long | XP | KO | TB | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake GrupeK | 2/2(54, 35) | 54 | 1/1 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
Punting
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Net | Long | In 20 | TB | Blk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai KroegerP | 3 | 142 | 47.3 | 38.7 | 49 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Kick returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Velus Jones Jr.WR | 5 | 134 | 26.8 | 30 | 0 |
Punt returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashid ShaheedWR | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 10 | 0 |
BUF
Dropbacks
| Player | DB | C/Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | CPOE | SR | WPA | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB | 28 | 16/22 | 224 | 8.0 | +8.3 | +0.30 | +9.3 | 46% | +0.32 | 2 | 1 |
Rush attempts
| Player | Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James CookRB | 22 | 117 | 5.3 | +3.2 | +0.15 | 55% | +0.08 | 1 |
| Josh AllenQB | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | +1.2 | +1.19 | 100% | +0.01 | 0 |
| Ray DavisRB | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | +0.0 | -0.04 | 0% | +0.01 | 0 |
| Elijah MooreWR | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | -0.5 | -0.46 | 0% | -0.02 | 0 |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | -1.6 | -1.63 | 0% | -0.05 | 0 |
Pass targets
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil ShakirWR | 5 | 5 | 69 | 13.8 | +2.6 | +0.52 | 40% | +0.13 | 1 |
| Dalton KincaidTE | 2 | 1 | 28 | 14.0 | +2.5 | +1.25 | 50% | +0.05 | 1 |
| Keon ColemanWR | 4 | 3 | 45 | 11.3 | +2.1 | +0.52 | 75% | +0.10 | 0 |
| Josh PalmerWR | 3 | 2 | 25 | 8.3 | +1.7 | +0.55 | 67% | +0.03 | 0 |
| Jackson HawesTE | 1 | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | +0.8 | +0.79 | 100% | +0.03 | 0 |
| Curtis SamuelWR | 2 | 1 | 9 | 4.5 | +0.6 | +0.29 | 50% | +0.00 | 0 |
| Dawson KnoxTE | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | -0.7 | -0.72 | 0% | -0.02 | 0 |
| James CookRB | 4 | 3 | 18 | 4.5 | -0.8 | -0.20 | 25% | +0.04 | 0 |
Kicking
| Player | FG | Long | XP | KO | TB | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt PraterK | 1/1(35) | 35 | 4/4 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
Punting
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Net | Long | In 20 | TB | Blk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron JohnstonP | 2 | 83 | 41.5 | 36.5 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis SamuelWR | 3 | 82 | 27.3 | 31 | 0 |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 13 | 0 |
Punt returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil ShakirWR | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 6 | 0 |