Bills
16–23
BUF @ NE
Patriots
Final · Sun, Jan 5, 2025 · 2024 Week 18 · Gillette Stadium
Ground Share
Patriots had the edge on the field
Teams with this edge win 71% of the time
BUF 43%57% NE
38.5%GROUND51.5%
Win Probability
Preparing chart…
Expected Points
Preparing chart…
QB Matchup
| QB | Plays | EPA/play | Success% | Sack% | Total EPA | aDoT | CMP% | xCMP% | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Trubisky | 22 | +0.22 | 45.5% | 0.0% | +4.7 | 6.7 | 75.0% | 68.9% | +6.1 |
| J.Milton | 31 | +0.43 | 51.6% | 0.0% | +13.3 | 10.4 | 81.5% | 64.4% | +17.1 |
Team Stats
| Metric | BUF | NE |
|---|---|---|
| EPA / Play | -0.09 | +0.01 |
| EPA / Dropback | -0.07 | +0.32 |
| EPA / Rush | -0.10 | -0.35 |
| Success Rate | 40.3% | 42.6% |
| Explosive Play Rate | 19.4% | 26.2% |
| Yards / Play | 3.87 | 5.11 |
| Early-Down EPA / Play | -0.04 | -0.09 |
| 3rd/4th-Down Conversion | 36.8% | 41.7% |
| Avg 3rd-Down Distance | 6.3 | 11.3 |
| Line Yards / Carry | 3.05 | 2.06 |
| Opportunity Rate (4+) | 43.8% | 36.0% |
| Stuff Rate | 21.9% | 32.0% |
| Havoc Rate Allowed | 14.9% | 9.8% |
| Avg Starting Field Position | 32.8 | 32.7 |
| Plays | 67 | 61 |
| Total Yards | 259 | 312 |
| Total EPA | -5.9 | +0.8 |
| Giveaways | 0 | 1 |
Special Teams
Patriots won the kicking game
Teams with this edge win 63% of the time
BUF 30%70% NE
2.8 pts wonSPECIAL TEAMS6.6 pts won
Biggest swing · J.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD — NE +1.3
Kickoffs · NE +0.2Punts · NE +0.8Kicks · NE +2.7
Player Stats
BUF
Dropbacks
| Player | DB | C/Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | CPOE | SR | WPA | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell TrubiskyQB | 22 | 15/21 | 109 | 5.0 | +4.7 | +0.21 | +6.1 | 46% | +0.08 | 1 | 0 |
| Mike WhiteQB | 11 | 3/11 | 28 | 2.5 | -7.2 | -0.65 | -36.9 | 18% | -0.22 | 0 | 0 |
Rush attempts
| Player | Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie GilliamRB | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | +1.2 | +1.22 | 100% | +0.05 | 0 |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | +0.9 | +0.44 | 50% | +0.03 | 0 |
| Keon ColemanWR | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | +0.8 | +0.78 | 100% | +0.01 | 0 |
| Ray DavisRB | 15 | 64 | 4.3 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 40% | -0.08 | 0 |
| James CookRB | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | -0.7 | -0.07 | 50% | -0.03 | 1 |
| Mitchell TrubiskyQB | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | -4.2 | -1.39 | 33% | -0.08 | 0 |
Pass targets
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray DavisRB | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0.3 | +2.6 | +0.88 | 33% | +0.08 | 1 |
| Mack HollinsWR | 4 | 3 | 25 | 6.3 | +0.9 | +0.22 | 50% | +0.01 | 0 |
| Quintin MorrisTE | 4 | 3 | 20 | 5.0 | +0.4 | +0.10 | 50% | +0.03 | 0 |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | -0.6 | -0.29 | 0% | -0.05 | 0 |
| Curtis SamuelWR | 8 | 7 | 52 | 6.5 | -1.4 | -0.17 | 50% | -0.01 | 0 |
| Keon ColemanWR | 10 | 2 | 31 | 3.1 | -3.9 | -0.39 | 20% | -0.13 | 0 |
Kicking
| Player | FG | Long | XP | KO | TB | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler BassK | 1/1(49) | 49 | 1/2 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
Punting
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Net | Long | In 20 | TB | Blk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam MartinP | 4 | 163 | 40.8 | 34.3 | 53 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon CodringtonCB | 2 | 62 | 31.0 | 32 | 0 |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 21 | 0 |
Punt returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon CodringtonCB | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
NE
Dropbacks
| Player | DB | C/Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | CPOE | SR | WPA | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Milton IIIQB | 31 | 22/29 | 254 | 8.2 | +13.3 | +0.43 | +17.1 | 52% | +0.31 | 1 | 0 |
| Drake MayeQB | 2 | 0/1 | -9 | -4.5 | -2.7 | -1.36 | -78.5 | 0% | -0.07 | 0 | 0 |
Rush attempts
| Player | Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio GibsonRB | 12 | 41 | 3.4 | -2.6 | -0.22 | 33% | -0.06 | 0 |
| Terrell JenningsRB | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | -2.7 | -0.34 | 25% | -0.02 | 0 |
| Joe Milton IIIQB | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | -3.3 | -0.66 | 60% | -0.15 | 1 |
Pass targets
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayshon BoutteWR | 7 | 7 | 117 | 16.7 | +9.7 | +1.39 | 86% | +0.28 | 1 |
| DeMario DouglasWR | 4 | 3 | 34 | 8.5 | +2.5 | +0.62 | 75% | +0.03 | 0 |
| Jaheim BellTE | 1 | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | +1.5 | +1.49 | 100% | +0.03 | 0 |
| Javon BakerWR | 1 | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | +1.2 | +1.19 | 100% | +0.02 | 0 |
| Kendrick BourneWR | 2 | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | +0.5 | +0.24 | 50% | +0.01 | 0 |
| Antonio GibsonRB | 6 | 4 | 20 | 3.3 | -0.1 | -0.01 | 33% | -0.01 | 0 |
| Terrell JenningsRB | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | -0.8 | -0.75 | 0% | -0.05 | 0 |
| Austin HooperTE | 6 | 4 | 27 | 4.5 | -1.4 | -0.24 | 17% | -0.07 | 0 |
Kicking
| Player | FG | Long | XP | KO | TB | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey SlyeK | 3/3(41, 42, 50) | 50 | 2/2 | 6 | 3 | 11 |
Punting
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Net | Long | In 20 | TB | Blk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce BaringerP | 3 | 111 | 37.0 | 37.0 | 39 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex EricksonWR | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 16 | 0 |
Punt returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex EricksonWR | 2 | 26 | 13.0 | 26 | 0 |