Patriots
21–27
NE @ BUF
Bills
Final · Sun, Dec 31, 2023 · 2023 Week 17 · New Era Field
Ground Share
Bills had the edge on the field
Teams with this edge win 71% of the time
NE 43%57% BUF
29.5%GROUND39.3%
Win Probability
Preparing chart…
QB Matchup
| QB | Plays | EPA/play | Total EPA | aDoT | CMP% | xCMP% | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Zappe | 29 | -0.56 | -16.3 | 8.0 | 61.5% | 64.9% | +1.8 |
| J.Allen | 31 | -0.16 | -4.9 | 11.2 | 50.0% | 60.5% | -7.0 |
Team Stats
| Metric | NE | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| EPA / Play | -0.28 | -0.05 |
| EPA / Dropback | -0.42 | -0.13 |
| EPA / Rush | -0.09 | +0.00 |
| Success Rate | 38.5% | 47.8% |
| Explosive Play Rate | 30.8% | 25.4% |
| Yards / Play | 5.67 | 4.22 |
| Early-Down EPA / Play | -0.18 | -0.01 |
| 3rd/4th-Down Conversion | 40.0% | 46.7% |
| Avg 3rd-Down Distance | 7.3 | 5.1 |
| Line Yards / Carry | 2.66 | 2.83 |
| Opportunity Rate (4+) | 47.6% | 46.9% |
| Stuff Rate | 28.6% | 9.4% |
| Havoc Rate Allowed | 15.4% | 9.0% |
| Avg Starting Field Position | 16.6 | 39.9 |
| Plays | 52 | 67 |
| Total Yards | 295 | 283 |
| Total EPA | -14.7 | -3.3 |
| Giveaways | 4 | 1 |
Player Stats
NE
Dropbacks
| Player | DB | C/Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | CPOE | SR | WPA | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey ZappeQB | 31 | 16/26 | 226 | 7.3 | -12.9 | -0.42 | +1.8 | 42% | -0.43 | 0 | 3 |
Rush attempts
| Player | Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMario DouglasWR | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | +0.5 | +0.16 | 67% | -0.01 | 0 |
| Kevin HarrisRB | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | +0.2 | +0.11 | 50% | +0.00 | 0 |
| Bailey ZappeQB | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | -0.1 | -0.06 | 0% | -0.03 | 0 |
| Ezekiel ElliottRB | 14 | 39 | 2.8 | -2.4 | -0.17 | 29% | -0.06 | 1 |
Pass targets
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin HarrisRB | 2 | 2 | 54 | 27.0 | +5.0 | +2.51 | 100% | +0.06 | 0 |
| DeMario DouglasWR | 5 | 3 | 31 | 6.2 | +1.1 | +0.22 | 40% | -0.02 | 0 |
| Tyquan ThorntonWR | 3 | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | +0.2 | +0.08 | 33% | +0.00 | 0 |
| Ezekiel ElliottRB | 2 | 1 | 6 | 3.0 | -0.2 | -0.09 | 50% | -0.01 | 0 |
| Mike GesickiTE | 6 | 4 | 35 | 5.8 | -3.3 | -0.55 | 50% | -0.12 | 0 |
| DeVante ParkerWR | 2 | 1 | 15 | 7.5 | -3.9 | -1.97 | 50% | -0.12 | 0 |
| Pharaoh BrownTE | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | -4.4 | -4.43 | 0% | -0.10 | 0 |
| Jalen ReagorWR | 3 | 1 | 39 | 13.0 | -4.9 | -1.65 | 33% | -0.09 | 0 |
BUF
Dropbacks
| Player | DB | C/Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | CPOE | SR | WPA | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB | 34 | 15/30 | 179 | 5.3 | -4.4 | -0.13 | -6.9 | 38% | +0.00 | 0 | 1 |
Rush attempts
| Player | Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | +4.1 | +0.51 | 88% | +0.11 | 2 |
| Stefon DiggsWR | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | +0.9 | +0.87 | 100% | +0.03 | 0 |
| Khalil ShakirWR | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | +0.5 | +0.54 | 100% | +0.01 | 0 |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | -1.0 | -0.20 | 40% | +0.05 | 0 |
| Latavius MurrayRB | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | -1.8 | -1.79 | 0% | -0.01 | 0 |
| James CookRB | 16 | 48 | 3.0 | -2.6 | -0.16 | 44% | -0.04 | 0 |
Pass targets
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil ShakirWR | 4 | 4 | 39 | 9.8 | +4.6 | +1.14 | 75% | +0.10 | 0 |
| Dalton KincaidTE | 7 | 4 | 87 | 12.4 | +1.4 | +0.20 | 43% | +0.00 | 0 |
| Gabe DavisWR | 3 | 2 | 21 | 7.0 | +0.9 | +0.29 | 67% | +0.03 | 0 |
| Latavius MurrayRB | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | -0.9 | -0.88 | 0% | +0.00 | 0 |
| Stefon DiggsWR | 7 | 4 | 26 | 3.7 | -1.3 | -0.19 | 43% | -0.03 | 0 |
| Trent SherfieldWR | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | -2.9 | -0.95 | 0% | -0.04 | 0 |
| James CookRB | 3 | 1 | -4 | -1.3 | -3.4 | -1.12 | 0% | -0.07 | 0 |