Bills
41–7
BUF @ SF
49ers
Final · Sun, Dec 26, 2004 · 2004 Week 16 · 3Com Park
Ground Share
Bills dominated the field
Teams with this edge win 98% of the time
BUF 78%22% SF
75.4%GROUND21.0%
Win Probability
Preparing chart…
Expected Points
Preparing chart…
QB Matchup
| QB | Plays | EPA/play | Success% | Sack% | Total EPA | aDoT | CMP% | xCMP% | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Bledsoe | 33 | +0.15 | 51.5% | 3.0% | +5.1 | — | — | — | — |
| C.Pickett | 12 | -0.62 | 33.3% | 16.7% | -7.5 | — | — | — | — |
Team Stats
| Metric |  BUF |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| EPA / Play | +0.24 | -0.36 |
| EPA / Dropback | +0.23 | -0.65 |
| EPA / Rush | +0.22 | -0.10 |
| Success Rate | 57.5% | 31.4% |
| Pass | 51.3% | 30.4% |
| Rush | 62.9% | 33.3% |
| Explosive Play Rate | 9.6% | 2.0% |
| Pass | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| Rush | 17.1% | 3.7% |
| Yards / Play | 6.04 | 3.71 |
| Early-Down EPA / Play | +0.24 | -0.42 |
| 3rd/4th-Down Conversion | 56.3% | 36.4% |
| Avg 3rd-Down Distance | 4.4 | 9.6 |
| Line Yards / Carry | 4.49 | 2.98 |
| Opportunity Rate (4+) | 52.8% | 46.4% |
| Stuff Rate | 5.6% | 10.7% |
| Havoc Rate Allowed | 13.7% | 23.5% |
| Avg Starting Field Position | 46.8 | 25.0 |
| Plays | 73 | 51 |
| Total Yards | 441 | 189 |
| Total EPA | +17.3 | -18.4 |
| Giveaways | 1 | 4 |
Special Teams
Bills dominated the kicking game
Teams with this edge win 70% of the time
BUF 88%12% SF
9.9 pts wonSPECIAL TEAMS1.4 pts won
Biggest swing · A.Lee punts 33 yards to BUF 22. N.Clements to 50 for 28 yards — BUF +1.9
Kickoffs · BUF +4.4Punts · BUF +3.5Kicks · BUF +0.6
Player Stats
BUF
Dropbacks
| Player | DB | C/Att | Yds | Yds/DB | EPA | EPA/Play | CPOE | SR | WPA | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane MatthewsQB | 3 | 2/3 | 44 | 14.7 | +5.5 | +1.83 | — | 67% | +0.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Drew BledsoeQB | 33 | 21/32 | 172 | 5.2 | +5.1 | +0.15 | — | 52% | +0.10 | 1 | 0 |
| Brian MoormanP | 1 | 0/1 | 0 | 0.0 | -1.9 | -1.94 | — | 0% | -0.03 | 0 | 0 |
Rush attempts
| Player | Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGaheeRB | 15 | 102 | 6.8 | +4.5 | +0.30 | 80% | +0.09 | 2 |
| Shaud WilliamsRB | 17 | 93 | 5.5 | +2.9 | +0.17 | 47% | +0.08 | 1 |
| Drew BledsoeQB | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | +1.5 | +0.74 | 100% | +0.05 | 0 |
| Lee EvansWR | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | +0.3 | +0.34 | 100% | +0.00 | 0 |
| Eric MouldsWR | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | -0.5 | -0.53 | 0% | +0.00 | 0 |
Pass targets
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee EvansWR | 8 | 8 | 92 | 11.5 | +12.9 | +1.61 | 88% | +0.14 | 2 |
| Eric MouldsWR | 8 | 8 | 81 | 10.1 | +5.9 | +0.74 | 100% | +0.07 | 0 |
| Jonathan SmithWR | 1 | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | +2.1 | +2.07 | 100% | +0.00 | 0 |
| Willis McGaheeRB | 1 | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | +1.3 | +1.28 | 100% | +0.06 | 0 |
| Rod TraffordTE | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | +0.8 | +0.80 | 100% | +0.01 | 0 |
| Josh ReedWR | 2 | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | +0.4 | +0.20 | 50% | +0.01 | 0 |
| Daimon SheltonFB | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | -0.2 | -0.20 | 0% | -0.01 | 0 |
| Shaud WilliamsRB | 1 | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | -0.8 | -0.75 | 0% | -0.01 | 0 |
Kicking
| Player | FG | Long | XP | KO | TB | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rian LindellK | 2/2(23, 31) | 31 | 5/5 | 8 | 0 | 11 |
Punting
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Net | Long | In 20 | TB | Blk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian MoormanP | 1 | 36 | 36.0 | 36.0 | 36 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrence McGeeCB | 1 | 36 | 36.0 | 36 | 0 |
| Jonathan SmithWR | 1 | 28 | 28.0 | 28 | 0 |
Punt returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate ClementsS | 4 | 61 | 15.3 | 28 | 0 |
SF
Dropbacks
| Player | DB | C/Att | Yds | Yds/DB | EPA | EPA/Play | CPOE | SR | WPA | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken DorseyQB | 11 | 5/10 | 54 | 4.5 | -7.4 | -0.67 | — | 27% | -0.14 | 0 | 1 |
| Cody PickettQB | 12 | 4/10 | 55 | 3.4 | -7.5 | -0.62 | — | 33% | -0.01 | 0 | 2 |
Rush attempts
| Player | Att | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan BarlowRB | 15 | 72 | 4.8 | +2.3 | +0.15 | 53% | -0.05 | 1 |
| Terry JacksonRB | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | +1.3 | +0.65 | 50% | +0.03 | 0 |
| Cody PickettQB | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | -0.9 | -0.87 | 0% | -0.01 | 0 |
| Maurice HicksRB | 10 | 10 | 1.0 | -6.2 | -0.62 | 0% | -0.13 | 0 |
Pass targets
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Yds/Play | EPA | EPA/Play | SR | WPA | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedrick WilsonWR | 1 | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | +3.9 | +3.86 | 100% | +0.00 | 0 |
| Brandon LloydWR | 2 | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | +2.5 | +1.27 | 100% | +0.07 | 0 |
| Curtis ConwayWR | 1 | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | +1.8 | +1.75 | 100% | +0.00 | 0 |
| Maurice HicksRB | 1 | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | +1.5 | +1.53 | 100% | +0.03 | 0 |
| Rashaun WoodsWR | 1 | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | +1.1 | +1.08 | 100% | +0.00 | 0 |
| Eric JohnsonTE | 2 | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | +0.8 | +0.41 | 50% | -0.02 | 0 |
| Terry JacksonRB | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | +0.0 | -0.01 | 0% | -0.01 | 0 |
Kicking
| Player | FG | Long | XP | KO | TB | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd PetersonK | — | — | 1/1 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
Punting
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Net | Long | In 20 | TB | Blk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy LeeP | 5 | 215 | 43.0 | 26.8 | 47 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Kick returns
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice HicksRB | 7 | 91 | 13.0 | 23 | 0 |
| Cedrick WilsonWR | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 15 | 0 |